Jacobson and Delucchi reported in 2011 that climate change, pollution, and energy insecurity are among the greatest problems of our time. Addressing them requires major changes in our energy infrastructure. Here, the authors analyzed the feasibility of providing worldwide energy for all purposes (electric power, transportation, heating/cooling, etc.) from wind, water, and sunlight (WWS). In Part I, the authors discussed WWS energy system characteristics, current and future energy demand, availability of WWS resources, numbers of WWS devices, and area and material requirements. In Part II, they address variability, economics, and policy of WWS energy.
The authors estimated that 3,800,000 5 MW wind turbines, 49,000 300 MW concentrated solar plants, 40,000 300 MW solar PV power plants, 1.7 billion 3 kW rooftop PV systems, 5350 100 MW geothermal power plants, 270 new 1300 MW hydroelectric power plants, 720,000 0.75 MW wave devices, and 490,000 1 MW tidal turbines can power a 2030 WWS world that uses electricity and electrolytic hydrogen for all purposes. Such a WWS infrastructure reduces world power demand by 30% and requires only 0.41% and 0.59% more of the world’s land for footprint and spacing, respectively. We suggest producing all new energy with WWS by 2030 and replacing the pre-existing energy by 2050. Barriers to the plan are primarily social and political, not technological or economic. The energy cost in a WWS world should be similar to that today.
The authors concluded that in Part I they examined the feasibility of providing all energy for all purposes (electric power, transportation, heating/ cooling, etc.) worldwide from wind, water, and the sun (WWS). The main technical findings of this analysis are as follows: Converting to a WWS energy infrastructure will reduce 2030 world power demand by 30%, primarily due to the efficiency of electricity compared with internal combustion. The amount of wind power plus solar power available in likely developable locations over land outside of Antarctica worldwide to power the world for all purposes exceeds projected world power demand by more than an order of magnitude.
One scenario for powering the world with a WWS system includes:
- 3.8 million 5 MW wind turbines (supplying 50% of projected total global power demand in 2030),
- 49,000 300 MW CSP power plants (supplying 20% of demand),
- 40,000 solar PV power plants (14%), 1.7 3 kW rooftop PV systems (6%),
- 5,350 100 MW geothermal power plants (4%),
- 900 1300 MW hydroelectric power plants, of which 70% are already in place (4%),
- 720,000 0.75 MW wave devices (1%), and
- 490,000 1 MW tidal turbines (1%).
The equivalent footprint area on the ground for the sum of WWS devices needed to power the world is 0.74% of global land area; the spacing area is 1.16% of global land area. Spacing area can be used for multiple purposes, including agriculture, ranching, and open space. However, if one-half of the wind devices are placed over water, if we consider wave and tidal devices are in water, and if we consider that 70% of hydroelectric is already developed and roof-top solar areas are already developed, the additional footprint and spacing of devices on land required are only 0.41% and 0.59% of the world land area, respectively.
The development of WWS power systems is not likely to be constrained by the availability of bulk materials, such as steel and concrete. In a global WWS system, some of the rarer materials, such as neodymium (in electric motors and generators), platinum (in fuel cells), and lithium (in batteries), will have to be recycled or eventually replaced with less-scarce materials unless additional resources are located. The cost of recycling or replacing neodymium or platinum is not likely to affect noticeably the economics of WWS systems, but the cost of large-scale recycling of lithium batteries is unknown.
In Part II of this study: Delucchi and Jacobson, 2011, the authors examined reliability, system and transmission costs, and policies needed for a worldwide WWS infrastructure.
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