Seddon reports on world are earth reserves:
• China dominates reserves of rare earths – close to 40‰ of the global total
• Brazil and Vietnam both represent around 18‰
• Russia also has significant RE reserves – 15‰
• India, Australia and US account for 1-6‰ of global reserves
• Relative abundance of rare earths in the earths crust, but mineable concentrations less common
Rare Earth Elements:
LREEs:
â—¦ Cerium = +30 million tons
â—¦ Lanthanum = +20 million tons
â—¦ Neodymium = +15 million tons
HREEs less abundant but still not that rare:
â—¦ Dysprosium ≈ 3 million tons
â—¦ (Economic) resources more the issue
Minerals of REE:
Bastnasite,
Allanite,
Monazite
Loparite
Xenotime is the main Yttrium-containing rare earth mineral & also high in dysprosium, and
Two main types of rare earth laterites (ion adsorption clays) in southern China:
â—¦ Type A (Xunwu) – V. low Ce & higher La, Nd and Pr
â—¦ Type B (Longnan) – V. high yttrium and dysprosium
World REE Production:
• Gradual decline in production from 2008 to 2012 - Chinese controls on output and exports
• Jump in production 2013 and 2014 – reaction to higher prices
• Further jump in 2015 and 2016 – resulting from ‘illegal’ production in China (despite Molycorp closure)
• Increase in 2018 – Other Sources? Australia, Canada, U.S.
World REE Demand:
Steady growth in RE demand in volume terms: â—¦ ≈132,000 tons REO in 2010 to ≈165,000 tons REO in 2018 (CAGR = 3 pc/yr)
Volume growth is steady supported by:
â—¦ Traditional industries for LREEs (e.g. glass, catalysts, 7 ceramics)
â—¦ Rapidly expanding industries such as the wind energy, battery-electric vehicle and consumer electronics industries
REO demand has declined in the battery alloy and lighting phosphor industries due to increasing competition from non-RE-based technologies
Chinese REE Exports:
Chinese exports dropped dramatically 2009-2011(export restrictions, mainly to Japan):
â—¦ Oxides ≈ 25.4 million kg to 8.0 million kg
â—¦ Metal ≈ 3.3 million kg to 1.3 million kg
Strong growth in exports since 2012 (relaxing of export restrictions & removal of export quota/taxes in 2015):
â—¦ Oxides ≈ 8.0mn kg to 38.4mn kg
â—¦ Metal ≈ 1.3mn kg to 5.5mn kg
Forecast for 2018:
â—¦ Oxides ≈ drop to 33.7 million kg
â—¦ Metal ≈ slight rise to 5.7 million kg
New Projects Outside of China that could affect REE Supply (and lower prices(?): ~25 new projects
Total REE Oxides Resources:
Greenland (2 projects)
Canada (7)
Uganda (1)
Tanzania (1)
United States (Alaska, Idaho, Texas, and ... California(?))
Malawi (1)
South Africa (1)
Burundi (1)
Namibia (1)
World Outlook of REE Production:
Declining to 2021 (Chinese government targeting 140,000 tons REO in 2021) – mitigated by some production from new projects outside China,
Moderate growth to 2025 - new projects and growth in China,
Slow growth after 2025 ... unless world economy expands beyond that forecast.
REE Price Forecasts:
Nd price through 2028: $45 to $58/kg
Y price through 2028: $3.00 to $14.00/kg
Other REE prices depend on economy growth
Future Risks in REE Industry:
Supply Risks:
â—¦ Chinese market dominance (changes in policy, protectionism, adding value downstream)
â—¦ Stockpiles
Downstream risks
â—¦ Technological change (competing technologies e.g. batteries for EVs etc.)
â—¦ Substitution risk (depends on application and product)
Price risk (potential price volatility, price spikes)
â—¦ Likelihood of supply squeeze leading to price rises?
â—¦ Growing demand in certain sectors could push up prices for certain REEs (e.g. magnet materials?)
REE Industry Conclusions:
- China control on production, reduce ‘illegal’ mining and add value to rare earth resources (ambitious target to reduce production to 140,000 tons by 2020/21),
- Success of new projects dependent on Chinese cut in output and sustained price rise (mix of elements also important),
- Magnet sector key to growth in rare earths demand (EVs and clean energy)
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