Riggio and Santulin reported in 2015 that the first measurements of radon as a seismic precursor are dated back to 1927, but the first recording, that is reported in many publications, and that encouraged research on seismic precursors, was detected before the Tashkent earthquake of 1966. The authors reviewed the radon measurements performed all over the world, trying to distinguish between discrete and continuous measurements, and between measurements in soil, water or air. The role that the “precursor radon” had in the forecast of strong earthquakes in the past has been examined. The currently monitored sites in Italy are listed, and some of the results obtained are reported.
The authors concluded that The results seem to indicate that the radon is a good indicator of crustal activity such as earthquakes, but there are still many tests to be done to achieve a deterministic forecast. Nevertheless, the prediction of catastrophic earthquake is a scientific objective. The amplitude of the deformation zone and of the precursor time for a given magnitude must be well evaluated. The expectation that an anomaly should be strongest shortly before of the earthquake and nearer to the site of the future earthquake is based on a temporally and spatially smooth mechanical model and is probably too simplistic.
The time series must be long enough to allow the false positives and false negatives identification. To obtain accurate results, the acquisition must be continuous, teletransmitted and in more observation points. The possibility of applying the machine-learning methods to identify radon anomalies should be evaluated, but without underestimating the human interpretation because each area has different characteristics.
Time series of hourly radon concentration in soil gas at Cazzaso (Friuli) recorded by Barasol, and soil temperatures for 2 periods: upper graph from May 2004 to April 2006, and lower graph from May 2007 to December 2008. Also earthquakes are drawn as bars. Solid lines indicate average seasonal radon concentration, dashed lines +1-σ deviation, and dotted lines +2-σ deviation from the seasonal average value.
Integrated measures of radon in soil and water should be carried out in conjunction with the acquisition of other parameters, in particular, the measurement of soil temperature and radio broadcasts.
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