Dr. Conca, in a political report involving the use of uranium in making bombs, opines that Iran was actually meeting the terms of the Nuclear Deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) [before that previous president pulled the plug only becasue Obama managed the deal]. According to the United Nations’ nuclear watch dog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran shipped nearly its entire fissionable stockpile to Russia last year, over 12 tons of enriched uranium, that could have been used to make uranium atomic bombs.
Iran then mothballed thousands of centrifuges necessary to enrich uranium for this type of atomic weapon, reducing the number of centrifuges from 19,000 to 6,104 and those 6,104 were the old ones, the IR1s, not their new ones, the IR2s. Iran also removed the core of its heavy water reactor at Arak, and filled it with concrete. That reactor could have produced plutonium for the other type of atomic bomb, one that is more easily mounted on missiles, like North Korea has done.
Iran stopped U-enrichment at its bunkered underground Fordow U-enrichment facility (Israeli buster bombs cannot reach this facility but ours can), and limited their Natanz U-enrichment facility to only enrich U-235 to 3.67%, about the level used in nuclear fuel for power plants. Iran allowed a dramatic increase in transparency and inspections that are necessary to demonstrate they were not making, or preparing to make, atomic weapons. IAEA inspectors had access to all of Iran's nuclear sites, the uranium mines and mills, the centrifuge plants, and all supply chains – with no warning. IAEA monitored dual-use technologies, and were able to access what they considered suspicious sites.
This Deal was mainly about atomic bombs, not anything else. Not terrorism, not religion, not Israel, not ISIS, not Syria, not Yemen, although it helped Israel by removing what might be the most serious threat to Israel’s survival – a single nuke dropped on a very small country. As important as all this was, the Deal was seen by the West as an important step in the democratization of Iran.
America (that previous president) violating this Deal made the Iranian hardliners quite happy. It’s just what they warned their people that America (that previous president) would do. The Nuclear Deal was a major factor in the last two Iranian elections giving the Iranian moderates real power and standing against the Theocrats. The Deal illustrated how an Iran that was engaged with the world could help the country’s global economic and political standing. It could have led to a peaceful regime change over years.
But not now, thanks to that previous president. The moderates have no choice but to chant “Death to America” along with everyone else. There is now no semblance of a reform party or a democratic movement in Iran. Certainly no protests. Since that previous president pulled out of the Deal, Iran has been slowly ramping up its nuclear program. They launched a new generation of advanced centrifuges to enrich uranium, their new IR6s. They are enriching U-235 beyond the 3.67% limit, and they are stockpiling enriched uranium above the limits set in the Deal.
One reason that we got the Iran Nuclear Deal in the first place, is that sanctions were working. Iran’s economy was hurting and protests were rising. Sanctions got Iran to the negotiating table. But when we signed the Deal, we didn’t take all the sanctions off. And when that previous president pulled us out of the Deal, we (he) put more on. We (that previous president) also bullied the rest of the world into going along with us. When we (that previous president) broke the Deal, that Administration's officials said the Iran sanctions suspended under the Deal would immediately snap back on, and any new contracts and financial deals with the country were banned. The United States (that previous president) would also punish companies and banks that continued to do other business with any country that continued working with Iran, even American companies. Because of this, the Iranian economy was being strangled even as we (that previous president) broke the Deal and they kept to it. It’s no wonder that Iran became more belligerent.
Thus, the several skirmishes that have led to the present escalation. If Iran can’t sell their oil, then they decided no one else should either. So mining oil tankers and bombing oil facilities around the Gulf made sense to Iran. And now, missiles are raining down on our troops at the Al-Asad Airbase near Baghdad [as a warning from the leaders of Iran to America to control our crazy impeached previous president?]
The most important author of the Iran Nuclear Deal, former Energy Secretary Ernest J. Moniz, now CEO of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, summed up that previous president’s decision to violate the Deal this way: “That previous president’s decision to withdraw from the Iranian nuclear deal is a major strategic mistake that not only damages the United States’ ability to prevent Iran from acquiring the material for a nuclear weapon, but also impairs our ability to prevent the spread and use of nuclear weapons, to work with allies and partners on issues of global concern and to protect our interests in the Middle East for years, if not decades, to come.” “The Iran nuclear deal rolled back Iran’s nuclear program and imposed uniquely stringent monitoring and verification measures—the most important elements of which were permanent—to prevent the country from ever developing a bomb. The United States is now in violation of the terms of the deal without offering a credible alternative.” Moniz went further, adding, “It’s hard to predict what will unfold from here, but the President has driven a deep wedge between the United States and our allies in Europe and has withdrawn from the process that would allow a comprehensive investigation of the Iran archives recently revealed by Israel.”
Pulling out of this Deal has unintended consequences that go far beyond Iran. America now has little credibility [thanks to that previous president] when it comes to deals of any sort with any country, just ask Ukraine or our former Kurdish allies. Any nuclear talks with North Korea will certainly suffer. Kim Jong Un will ask for a lot more from us than he might have just to show we’ll honor a deal with him. Even if both America and Iran decide to de-escalate, which appears to be the case as of last night, we seem to be back to the drawing board with few prospects for convincing Iran not to develop an atomic bomb [....but this is an unintended period of opportunity to get Iran back to reality with a new quid pro quo ... if Iran returns to the provisions of JCPOA, then the U.S. will lift sanctions as needed?]
And that has always been the most important thing.
[Note the above is just a part of Dr. Conca's blog. Recommend reading the complete blog.]
The original working URL: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2020/01/08/the-iran-nuclear-deal-and-the-killing-of-soleimani/#307ba5047fe7
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