The Private and External Costs of Germany's Nuclear Phase-Out

Nuclear Power Industry

Jarvis, et al., reported in later 2019 that many [Fact Check: only a few misguided] countries have phased out nuclear electricity production in response to concerns about nuclear waste and the risk of nuclear accidents [Fact Check: Nuclear Power Plants represent the safest energy industry on the planet]. The authors examine the impact of the shutdown of roughly half of the nuclear production capacity in Germany after the Fukushima incident in 2011,[where by the way no one was killed or received radiation burns] The authors used hourly data on power plant operations and a novel machine learning framework to estimate how plants would have operated differently if the phase-out had not occurred. They found that the lost nuclear electricity production due to the phase-out was replaced primarily by coal-fired production and net electricity imports.

The social cost of this shift from nuclear to coal is approximately 12 billion dollars per year. Over 70% of this cost comes from the increased mortality risk associated with exposure to the local air pollution emitted when burning fossil fuels. Even the largest estimates of the reduction in the costs associated with nuclear accident risk and waste disposal due to the phase-out are far smaller than 12 billion dollars.

[Note 1: The German dichotomy is also likely due to the naive younger German generation wanting to push any significant action on climate change into the future, while at the same time believing the false anti-nuclear groups claims on nuclear power safety and costs:

See: nuclear safety issues: http://i2mportal.com/search_resource.php?search_value=%22nuclear+power%22+safety+#page=1 

Pros and cons of wind and solar farms (roof solar excepted): http://i2mportal.com/search_resource.php?search_value=Pros+and+cons+of+wind+and+solar#page=1 

[Note 2: Read full report: http://papers.nber.org/tmp/26395-w26598.pdf ]

[Note 3: See: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/energy/shutdown-of-nuclear-after-fukushima-caused-more-deaths-than-the-accident-itself-study] 

[Note 4: See: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/energy/german-nuclear-phaseout-is-causing-1-100-additional-deaths-a-year-study