Schneider, and 10 principal co-authors, have assembled an impressive report extolling the apparent virtues on solar and wind energy. As in its preceding editions, the World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2019 provides a comprehensive overview of nuclear power plant data, including information on age, operation, production and construction, [but the objectivity of the report is lost in considering nuclear costs (more)].
A new chapter on Climate Change and Nuclear Power addresses the crucial question of the performance of the nuclear option in countering the increasingly obvious climate emergency. The WNISR assesses the status of new-build programs in the 31 current nuclear countries as well as in potential newcomer countries. This report has put particular attention on 10 Focus Countries representing about two-thirds of the global fleet. The Fukushima Status Report gives an overview of the standing of onsite and offsite issues eight years after the beginning of the catastrophe. The Decommissioning Status Report for the second time provides an overview of the current state of nuclear reactors that have been permanently closed. The [Nuclear Power vs. Renewable Energy] chapter offers global comparative data on investment, capacity, and generation from nuclear, wind and solar energy. Finally, as usual, it presents a country-by-country overview of the remaining countries’ operating nuclear power plants.
The next 18 months will be a crucial period for the development of a more ambitious international climate regime. In September 2019, the United Nations is hosting the Climate Action Summit, to galvanize support for more determined action, including through the revision of the country-specific carbon abatement plans or Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) required under the Paris Agreement. As was analyzed in WNISR2016, within the INDCs—at the time the pledges were only Indicative Nationally Determined Contributions—just eleven countries mentioned they were operating or considering to operate nuclear power as part of their mitigation strategy and even fewer (five) actually stated that they were proposing to expand its use (Belarus, India, Japan, Turkey and United Arab Emirates). This compares with 144 that mention the use of renewable energy, and 111 that explicitly mention targets or plans for expanding its use. It is therefore highly unlikely that the revision of the carbon abatement plans will lead to stronger statements of support for nuclear power because, as is outlined in this chapter, it is renewable energy technologies that are the preferred non-fossil fuel option.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the United Nations body established for assessing the science related to climate change. Periodically, the IPCC publishes Assessment Reports that review developments and changing understanding in both climate adaptation and mitigation. The most recent, the 5th report (AR5), was published in 2015; the next will be in 2022. In addition, the IPCC undertakes special reports, such as on Renewable Energy Sources in 2011. The 2015 Paris Agreement states that its “central aim is to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change by keeping a global temperature rise this century well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius”; consequently, the IPCC undertook a 2018 special report on the impacts of 1.5 degrees of global warming.
In the chapter on mitigation, the IPCC review the role of different energy technologies and are clear that in order to have a high degree of confidence in meeting a 1.5 degree target, the share of primary energy from renewables (including bioenergy, hydro, wind, and solar) needs to increase by 2050, so that they supply 52–67 percent of primary energy. Solar and wind together are expected to provide 28–343 EJ930 (with a median of 121 EJ) by 2050, while the role for nuclear power is much less certain, with the suggestion that by 2050 primary energy supplied by nuclear would range from 3 to 66 EJ/year (median of 24 EJ).931 Furthermore, the IPCC states that “some 1.5°C pathways with no or limited overshoot no longer see a role for nuclear fission by the end of the century”,[although when the actual O&M costs of the wind and solar farms are revealed, the attractiveness of the experiments with such systems will diminish rapidly, except for remote regions were the power grid is not available without government subsidies. Roof-top solar, will likely allow the more affluent suburban and urban citizens to reduce their electricity costs in the near future followed by widespread building code requirements to require solar in the foreseeable future as solar technology stabilizes].
While there is no agreement by the uninformed on the extent, if any, of the role nuclear power will have in the future, even in a rapidly decarbonizing world, what is clear is that renewable energy will now dominate a future energy system and as its deployment rates accelerate its advantages over nuclear will become more obvious [...until the excessive cost of the large wind and solar become apparent. Nuclear will be ready to replace not only coal but most wind and solar project]. Furthermore, there is every indication, as outlined below, that nuclear power will be at best a marginal contributor in a selective set of countries and markets, and most likely will continue to fade for basic economic reasons.[Fact Check: A major loss in objectivity at this point in the report. See the rest of the story (more).]
Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) continue to attract "inordinate attention"[?]. SMRs as well as other “advanced reactor” designs are often positioned as a solution to one or more of the problems confronting nuclear power. Although talked about as physical reactors, most SMRs are only theoretical designs, and all too often at a very initial stage of development. At the same time, there has been a long history of promotion of SMRs premised on rapid commercialization and expansion, none of which has come true. Based on such expectations, several countries, especially the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom, are putting in place processes and policies to promote these designs. What follows is an update of earlier analysis (in particular WNISR2015 and WNISR2017) on SMR programs in selected countries (in alphabetical order).
[It is becoming clear that SMRs will fill in the gaps in coverage as the wind and solar system farms fail, both from the impact of the high price of electricity, but also from the physical failures of the farms resulting from "exposure", wind gear-box failures, and the impact of weather systems. For the historical development of the SMR concept, see (here)]
[Read the whole for its full coverage, albeit heavily biased in PDF (here).]
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