Giurco, et al., reported in 2013 that the minerals industry in Australia are vulnerable. Reviewing the 160â€year history of Australian mineral development indicates that local and international factors have all been influential in constraining or sustaining mining, including economics, geology and social forces. Research undertaken through the Mineral Futures Collaboration Cluster indicates that, in future, environmental and social factors will be important to both mining productivity and defining the role which mining plays more broadly within the Australian economy.
Australia occupies an unusual position as a developed country, by being a net importer, whose capacity for international trade is increasingly reliant on a single industry sector (mining) that produces comparatively lowâ€value commodities. Despite commitments to developing valueâ€added mineral products in Australia over past decades, the contemporary reality is stark. Rather than thriving exports of steel and electricity, Australian exports are dominated by unprocessed bulk commodities of iron ore and coal. These and other mineral exports have followed the pattern of other export commodities (wool, wheat, sugar), in that they have comparatively low requirements for labor, are comparatively cheap and simple to transport, and are supported by high levels of foreign investment.
Bulk commodities dominate exports – rather than high value-added goods. But looking ahead, Australia faces uncertainties over future levels of commodity demand in a resource constrained world and increased competition from overseas for market share. Back on the ground, the quality of our remaining mineral resource stock is in decline, costs of production and transport are rising, along with community concerns and environmental pressure, while social licence to operate is becoming more difficult to establish and maintain. Moving beyond the mineral sector, it is increasingly apparent that the macroeconomic consequences of the recent ‘boom’ are affecting the prospects of other key industry sectors such as agriculture, tourism, education and manufacturing.
Imperative, is the need for Australia to prevent the ‘Dutch disease’ progressing towards the ‘Resource Curse’. This requires effective management of resources and the sector in contrast to countries who have exhausted profitable mineral resources and proceeds from mining without making a transition to other sources of economic development. Meanwhile, China, Japan and Europe are focused on becoming resource efficient economies where recycling plays a greater role.
The future is uncertain for market share and demand, but increased mining investment is pursued despite crowding out value-adding industries. Australia must rethink how it uses its resources to deliver long term benefit in the decades ahead. Developing a longâ€term strategy for managing minerals and mineral wealth should be a national priority. This report proposes a National Minerals Strategy, as a means of positioning Australia for advantage in the Asian Century and to secure prosperity for the present and future.
Examining Australia’s mineral future in the “Asian Century” is a national imperative. The task is urgent, complex and will require sustained support to be successful. At present, thinking about the future of minerals and metals is dominated by discussions of economic forecasts for investment and sale prices, and growth projections for export volumes and revenue. Despite the growing evidence of unintended impacts from a multiâ€speed economy, and a strong currency affecting other sectors, there is little discussion of how Australian resources will contribute to national prosperity over the longâ€term.
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