McLellan, and 5 co-authors, reported in 2016 that the nexus of minerals and energy becomes ever more important as the economic growth and development of countries in the global South accelerates and the needs of new energy technologies expand, while at the same time various important minerals are declining in grade and available resources from conventional mining. Unconventional resources in the form of sea-floor deposits and urban ores are being widely examined, although their development is still limited [albeit inevitable and awaiting economic incentives.]
This paper examines some of the implications of the transition towards cleaner energy futures in parallel with the shifts through conventional ore decline and the uptake of unconventional mineral resources. Three energy scenarios, each with three levels of uptake of renewable energy, are assessed for the potential of critical minerals to restrict growth under 12 alternative mineral supply patterns. Under steady material intensities per unit of capacity, the study indicates that selenium, indium and tellurium could be barriers in the expansion of thin-film photovoltaics, while neodymium and dysprosium may delay the propagation of wind power. For fuel cells, no restrictions are observed.
The authors have highlighted that there are likely to be deficits of critical minerals under a variety of energy and materials development scenarios. While recycling can certainly add some proportion of the newly required material, it is clear that under the assumptions used here, the impact of new primary production rates is likely to be more important. This is particularly strongly affected by the rapid rate of growth in energy demand from non-OECD countries and the assumed lack of improvement in the rate of material use per energy unit. The scenarios were based (on the demand side) on recent historical trends in production and in the expansion of total energy and, specifically, clean energy technologies, such as hydroelectric, nuclear, wind and solar sources of energy.
On the supply side, mineral production rates were estimated using four basic methods for primary production, and then all of these were augmented with two recycling scenarios. This gave a wide range of production scenarios that was integrated with the demand to identify potential limitations in the future of clean energy. All of the examined byproduct metals for photovoltaics, selenium, indium and tellurium, were found to be limiting to varying degrees, with tellurium being the metal of highest concern. Studies by others have identified potential for much higher production rates of tellurium by increasing recovery from copper anode slimes and through the acceptance of much higher estimates of economically extractable tellurium. Moreover, the parameters for the capacity factor and the use of a static (non-improving) material intensity for such technologies will affect the expected material requirement, making this study potentially conservative. With longer than presently expected lifetimes (40 years instead of 20 years) and high capacity factors (25%), it would be possible to provide even the highest energy requirement (30% scenarios) in the case of a 90% improvement in material intensity for selenium and indium, and a 99.7% improvement for tellurium.
With regards to PGM and yttrium for fuel cells, only one scenario found yttrium to be a potential bottleneck material. In the case of neodymium and dysprosium, these were found to delay the roll-out of wind power, but the supply eventually catches up to initial anticipated demand. These scenarios have many areas in need of further improvement, particularly understanding the mixed portfolio of technologies and the effect of price as a limiting factor. The importance of social and environmental factors affecting the available supply needed to deliver a clean energy transition in response to climate change needs much greater attention, such as is being proposed by the Resourcing Future Generations initiative of the International Union of Geological Sciences.
Further research aims to also examine the extent to which the utilization of sea- floor mineral resources could provide more material for such technologies, and the environmental impact associated with this.
In 2014, Giurco, et al., reviewed the subject of responsible mineral and energy futures: views at the nexus: http://www.i2mconsultants.com/downloads/corp/Responsible_mineral_and_energy_futures_v.pdf
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