World Nuclear Association (WNA) reported in June that about 30 countries are considering, planning or starting nuclear power programs, and a further 20 or so countries have at some point expressed an interest. In the following list, links are provided for those countries that are covered by specific country papers:
- In Europe: Italy, Albania, Serbia, Croatia, Portugal, Norway, Poland, Belarus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Ireland, Turkey.
- In the Middle East and North Africa: Gulf states including UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait; Yemen, Israel, Syria, Jordan, Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Algeria, Morocco, Sudan.
- In west, central and southern Africa: Nigeria, Ghana, Senegal, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Zambia, Namibia, Rwanda.
- In Central and South America: Cuba, Chile, Ecuador, Venezuela, Bolivia, Peru, Paraguay.
- In central and southern Asia: Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Uzbekistan.
- In SE Asia and Oceania: Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Malaysia, Singapore, Myanmar, Australia, New Zealand.
In east Asia: North Korea.
Despite the large number of these emerging countries, they are not expected to contribute very much to the expansion of nuclear capacity in the foreseeable future – the main growth will come in countries where the technology is already well established. However, in the longer term, the trend to urbanization in less-developed countries will greatly increase the demand for electricity, and especially that supplied by base-load plants such as nuclear power plants. The pattern of energy demand in these countries will become more like that of Europe, North America and Japan.
Some of the above countries can be classified according to how far their nuclear power programs or plans have progressed:
- Power reactors under construction: UAE, Belarus, Bangladesh, Turkey.
- Contracts signed, legal and regulatory infrastructure well-developed or developing: Lithuania, Poland, Vietnam (but deferred).
- Committed plans, legal and regulatory infrastructure developing: Jordan, Egypt.
- Well-developed plans but commitment pending: Thailand, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Saudi Arabia; or commitment stalled: Italy.
- Developing plans: Israel, Nigeria, Kenya, Laos, Morocco, Algeria.
- Discussion as policy option: Namibia, Mongolia, Philippines, Singapore, Albania, Serbia, Croatia, Estonia & Latvia, Libya, Azerbaijan, Sri Lanka, Tunisia, Syria, Qatar, Sudan, Cuba, Venezuela, Bolivia, Paraguay, Peru, Chile.
- Officially not a policy option at present: Australia, New Zealand, Portugal, Norway, Ireland, Kuwait, Myanmar, Malaysia, Cambodia, Rwanda, Tanzania, Zambia.
A July 2017 report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on International Status and Prospects of Nuclear Power said that some 28 member states without nuclear power plants “are considering, planning or starting” nuclear power programs at present. Of these 28 un-named countries, it said that two have started construction of their first nuclear power plant, two have ordered their first nuclear power plant, five have made the decision to invest and are preparing infrastructure, seven are actively preparing prior to final decision, and 12 are considering a nuclear power program. The IAEA said that a further 20 countries have expressed an interest in nuclear power.
One major issue for many countries is the size of their grid system. Many nuclear power plants are larger than the fossil fuel plants they supplement or replace, and it does not make sense to have any generating unit more than about one-tenth of the capacity of the grid (maybe 15% if there is high reserve capacity). [SMRs will change this view when they become available.] This is so that the plant can be taken offline for refueling or maintenance, or due to unforeseen events. The grid capacity and quality may also be considered regionally, as with Jordan for instance. In many situations, as much investment in the grid may be needed as in the power plant(s). Kenya sought to evaluate its grid system before considering the generation options.
Another issue is that of licensing reactor designs. Emerging countries generally do not have the expertise for this, and must initially rely on design licensing by countries such as the UK, USA, France, Russia and China while they focus on building competence to license the actual operation of plants. State-owned nuclear companies in Russia and China have taken the lead in offering nuclear power plants to emerging countries, usually with finance and fuel services. The following table charts the main influence in countries with various agreements but not yet any plants under construction (see also the relevant tables in the information papers on China and Russia).
Read on.
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