Crock produced a thesis that concluded that materials are the basis of the modern global economy. Neodymium is one particular metal that is ubiquitous in laptops, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) machines, automotive catalysts (and still many more products) and recently, vital to a decarbonizing economy as it is used in the highly-efficient permanent magnet motor of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and in increasingly favoured direct-drive wind turbines. What would happen if the supply of neodymium was obstructed? What if supply could not keep up with an increasing appetite for neodymium applications? These supply bottlenecks form the basis of the concept of materials criticality, the nexus of supply risk and economic importance.
Neodymium has been identified as critical by virtually every criticality assessment hitherto with its primary production monopolized one country. Moreover its significance to an increasingly digitized world and a green economy leaves the world potentially vulnerable in times of supply constraints. There are however mechanisms that can reduce criticality. One particular cogent tool, recycling, enables the harvesting of the neodymium urban mine once neodymium-containing products become waste. The cascading effects of recycling not only enable diversification of our supply mix but secondary recovery of neodymium has substantially reduced adverse environmental impacts compared to virgin extraction.
With neodymium recycling rates <1%, this research aims to determine the brevity of the neodymium urban mine as a criticality reduction measure by quantifying neodymium stocks and flows for 2010 and 2030. It will describe the global neodymium supply-demand-geopolitical dynamics from 1990-2015 in order to provide a broader framework in which neodymium criticality can be assessed. Understanding the products into which neodymium applications flow will be addressed with the development of the Neodymium Sector-Product Portfolio, a tool that acts as a matrix for inventorying all products using one of seven neodymium applications and assigning those products to one of six economic sectors. Finally the Portfolio will be extended to include neodymium compositions per product.
Using material flow analysis this research will model and characterize stocks and flows of those neodymium-containing products in the Sector-Product Portfolio using the Netherlands 2010 economy as a case study. The assessment will compare neodymium results in this research with the existing literature in order to discuss discrepancies on neodymium hotspots and problematic flows. Finally a theoretical potential of secondary neodymium will be derived based on neodymium demand.
Through the application of scenario mapping, the 2010 results, in combination with product evolution parameters, will provide the foundation upon which a 2030 neodymium future will materialize. With the expected large market uptake of electric mobility and wind energy, the modeling results will illustrate if neodymium flows mirrored 2010. Moreover by offering a potential neodymium scenario in the future, policymakers and EOL system managers and recyclers can be alerted to these forthcoming flows now.
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