Alonso, and 6 co-authors, reported in 2012 that the future availability of rare earth elements (REEs) is of concern due to monopolistic supply conditions, environmentally unsustainable mining practices, and rapid demand growth. We present an evaluation of potential future demand scenarios for REEs with a focus on the issue of co-mining. Many assumptions were made to simplify the analysis, but the scenarios identify some key variables that could affect future rare earth markets and market behavior.
Increased use of wind energy and electric vehicles are key elements of a more sustainable future. However, since present technologies for electric vehicles and wind turbines rely heavily on dysprosium (Dy) and neodymium (Nd), in rare-earth magnets, future adoption of these technologies may result in large and disproportionate increases in the demand for these two elements. For this study, upper and lower bound usage projections for REE in these applications were developed to evaluate the state of future REE supply availability. In the absence of efficient reuse and recycling or the development of technologies which use lower amounts of Dy and Nd, following a path consistent with stabilization of atmospheric CO2 at 450 ppm may lead to an increase of more than 700% and 2600% for Nd and Dy, respectively, over the next 25 years if the present REE needs in automotive and wind applications are representative of future needs.
Increasing concerns about the environmental impacts and reliability of supply of fossil fuels are motivating a global drive toward introduction of emerging technologies such as photo-voltaics, fuel cells, and wind turbines. However, the availability of materials required for these technologies is a source of concern.The adoption of new technologies can lead to rapid changes in materials demand. Historically, new, or “revolutionary”, changes in demand for materials have led to market instability and price spikes. For example, the platinum market experienced a surge when three-way catalytic converters were adopted by the automotive industry to meet environmental regulations requiring emissions controls.
Market instability is detrimental to manufacturers that depend upon a reliable supply of materials and can deter the introduction of new technologies. The implications of revolutionary demand for materials cannot be understood from historical (“evolutionary”) demand information alone. Rare earth elements (REEs) have recently received much attention regarding the reliability of their supply.13,14 The International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry (IUPAC) defines the rare earth metals as a group of 17 elements consisting of the 15 lanthanoids [La, Ce, Pr, Nd, Pm, Sm, Eu, Gd, Tb, Dy, Ho, Er, Tm, Yb, Lu] plus Sc and Y.15 Data are mainly available for only 10 of the 17 elements, and therefore the following analysis focuses on these: La, Ce, Pr, Nd, Sm, Eu, Gd, Tb, Dy, and Y. The commercial significance of REEs is not reflected in the volume in which they are used; their annual primary production tonnage is approximately 2 orders of magnitude less than copper and 4 orders of magnitude less than iron. REEs are important because they provide critical functionality in a wide variety of applications and are used in relatively large amounts in key technologies being developed to provide sustainable mobility and energy supply. Unfortunately, the availability of REEs appears to be at risk based on a number of factors. Of particular significance, one country (China) controls 98% of current supply (production). Historically, much lower levels of market concentration have harmed manufacturing firms.
For example, in 1978 Zaire controlled 48% of the cobalt supply and yet political unrest in Zaire resulted in a disruption to global supply that became known as the “Cobalt Crisis”. Another contributor to supply risk for REEs is the fact that they are co-mined;individual REEs are not mined separately. REEs are found together in geological deposits, rendering mining of individual elements economically inefficient. The supply of any individual REE depends on the geology of the deposits, the costs of the
extraction technology employed, and the price of the basket of rare earths (RE). Finally, REEs have come under global scrutiny due to the environmental and social conditions under which they are mined, further increasing their supply risk.23−25 The literature contains a number of reports that evaluate different aspects of RE availability.
The USGS has published detailed reports on RE resources. Industry reporting has focused on projected demands for REEs, with a focus on the political efforts in China to limit exports.28−30 Recent material flow analysis by Du and Graedel have quantified global secondary resources for possible future recycling of REE. They evaluated REE flows through end-use products such as computers and automobiles to estimate both REE stocks and flows.
A number of reports have highlighted the political implications of high geographic concentration of RE production. Finally, a number of materials survey studies have identified REEs as having high risks. In the present work, we evaluate future potential demand scenarios for REEs with a focus on the issue of co-mining. REE demand scenarios are presented and compared to past demand, estimated future production, and known resources. In particular, resource requirements for electric vehicles and wind turbines (revolutionary demand areas for REEs) were estimated from performance specifications and vehicle sales or turbine deployment projections. Future demand is estimated for a range of scenarios including one developed by the International Energy Agency (IEA) with adoption of electric vehicles and wind turbines at a rate consistent with stabilization of CO2 in the atmosphere at a level of 450 ppm. The present work is a top-down analysis of RE flows which complements previous analyses.
We present a detailed analysis of the implications of co-mining of REEs on future REE availability and the first projections of REE demand where revolutionary and evolutionary demand are explicitly considered. Finally, we describe several RE demand estimates spanning a range of conservative to aggressive demand scenarios that provide lower and upper bounds on expected global RE demand. The present work had two goals: (1) identify the conditions where REEs may experience unprecedented demand growth, and (2) assess the implications of co-mining on RE availability under rapid demand growth in specific industries.
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