Michael Shellenberger reports that nearly two-thirds of new nuclear power by 2025 is likely to come from just three reactor designs built by two different countries, Russia and China, a new Environmental Progress (EP) analysis finds. As such, the long-term nuclear building trend appears to be toward greater consolidation by a few, nationally-standardized pressurized-water reactors (PWRs). The designs are Russia's VVER1200 and China’s CAP1000 and Hualong-1.
In the category of “exported” reactors, Russian VVER1200s dominate all others. It will have nearly three times the expected capacity now, or soon under construction, as the next most sought-after design. While China’s internal nuclear build-out is the largest in the world, countries in the position to buy reactors have been overwhelmingly choosing Russia and its VVER1200. And while China has by far the most designs under construction, it is only exporting two standardized reactors: the CANDU 6 and the Hualong-1.
While Russia and China spend billions on non-water cooled nuclear projects, with Russia’s successfully-operating fast reactors the leader of the pack, in both nations, both internal and external sales are essentially monopolized by the flagship pressurized water reactor (PWR) designs. EP's Mark Nelson and Madison Czerwinski based their assessment on planned and proposed new nuclear construction projects around the world, not plants already under construction. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) designates plants as “under construction” once the concrete has been poured for the basemat under the reactor.
All projects were evaluated for their likelihood of entering the construction phase, with weight given to the nuclear track record of involved parties along with their financial and technical capabilities.
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