The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna published the 2017 Edition of the Reference Data Series No.1 on the title subjects. Reference Data Series No. 1 (RDS-1) is an annual publication, currently in its thirty-seventh edition, containing estimates of energy, electricity and nuclear power trends up to the year 2050. RDS-1 starts with a summary of the status of nuclear power in IAEA Member States as of the end of 2016 based on statistical data collected by the IAEA’s Power Reactor Information System (PRIS). It then presents estimates of energy and electricity up to 2050 derived from various international studies, including the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2016 and the United States Energy Information Administration’s International Energy Outlook 2016. The energy and electricity data for 2016 are estimated, as the latest information available from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs is for 2014. Population data originate from World Population Prospects (2015 revision), published by the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. The 2016 values
again are estimates.
As in previous editions of RDS-1, projections of nuclear power are presented as low and high estimates encompassing the uncertainties inherent in projecting trends. The projections are based on a critical review of (i) the global and regional energy, electricity and nuclear power projections made by other international organizations, (ii) national projections supplied by individual countries for a recent OECD Nuclear Energy Agency study and (iii) the estimates of the expert group participating in the IAEA’s yearly consultancy on nuclear capacity projections. The estimates of future nuclear electrical generating capacity presented in Table 5 are derived using a country by country ‘bottom up’ approach. In deriving these estimates, a group of experts considers all the operating reactors, possible licence renewals, planned shutdowns and plausible construction projects foreseen for the next several decades. The experts build the projections project by project by assessing the plausibility ofeach in light of, first, the assumptions of the low projections and, second, the assumptions of the high projections.
The low and high estimates reflect contrasting, but not extreme, underlying assumptions on the different driving factors that have an impact on nuclear power deployment. These factors, and the ways they might evolve, vary from country to country. The estimates presented provide a plausible range of nuclear capacity growth by region and worldwide. They are not intended to be predictive nor to reflect the whole range of possible futures from the lowest to the highest feasible. The low case represents expectations about the future assuming that current market, technology and resource trends continue and there are few additional changes in explicit laws, policies and regulations affecting nuclear power. This case was explicitly designed to produce a ‘conservative’ set of projections.Additionally, the low case does not assume that targets for nuclear power in a particular country will necessarily be achieved. These assumptions are relaxed in the high case.
The high case projections are much more ambitious, but are still plausible and technically feasible. The high case assumes that current rates of economic and electricity consumption growth will continue, particularly in the Eastern Asia region. Country policies toward climate change are also considered in the high case. Over the short term, the low price of natural gas and the impact of subsidized intermittent renewable energy sources on electricity prices are expected to continue to affect nuclear growth prospects in some regions of the world. Moreover, natural gas has become more competitive owing to low prices and increased supply as a result of technological advances in gas extraction. Ongoing financial uncertainty and declining electricity consumption in some regions continue to present challenges for capital intensive projects such as nuclear power. Heightened safety requirements, challenges in deploying advanced technologies and other factors have increased construction times and costs, contributing to delays. The expert group assumed that these challenges, in addition to the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, will continue to delay nuclear development plans. In the longer run, the underlying fundamentals of population growth and electricity consumption in the developing world, as well as climate change and air qualityconcerns, security of energy supply and price volatility of other fuels, continue to point to nuclear generating capacity playing an important role in the energy mix.
Compared with the 2016 projections to 2030, the 2017 projections were reduced by 45 GW(e)1 by 2030 in both the high and the low case. These reductions reflect responses to the Fukushima Daiichi accident and other factors noted above. There are increasing uncertainties in these projections owing to the considerable number of reactors scheduled to be retired in some regions around 2030 and beyond. Significant new nuclear capacity would be necessary to offset any retirements resulting from factors such as ageing fleets and economic difficulties. With respect to projections from 2030 to 2050, assumptions are made about the general rate of development and retirements.
Given all the uncertainties, these estimates should be considered as suggestive of the potential outcomes. Interest in nuclear power remains strong in some regions,
particularly in the developing world. Commitments agreed to at the 21st session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change may also have an impact on nuclear energy development in the future.
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