In addition to updated resource figures, Uranium 2016 – Resources, Production and Demand presents the results of the most recent review of world uranium market fundamentals and offers a statistical profile of the world uranium industry as of 1 January 2015. It contains official data provided by 37 countries and 12 national reports prepared by the NEA and IAEA Scientific Secretaries on uranium exploration, resources, production and reactor-related requirements. Projections of nuclear generating capacity and reactorrelated uranium requirements through 2035 are presented, as well as a discussion of long-term uranium supply and demand issues.
Total identified resources (reasonably assured and inferred) as of 1 January 2015 amounted to 5 718 400 tonnes of uranium metal (tU) in the 3O8) category, a decrease of 3.1% compared to 1 January 2013. In the highest cost category (U3O8), total identified resources amount to
7 641 600 tU, an increase of only 0.1% compared to the total reported for 2013.
Total undiscovered resources (prognosticated resources and speculative resources) as of 1 January 2015 amounted to 7,422,700 tU, a minor decrease from the 7,697,700 tU in the previous edition (NEA/IAEA, 2014). It is important to note that in some cases, including those of major producing countries with large identified resource inventories (e.g. Australia, Canada and the United States), estimates of undiscovered resources are either not reported or estimates have not been updated for several years.
The uranium resource figures presented in this volume are a snapshot of the situation as of 1 January 2015. Resource figures are dynamic and related to commodity prices. Identified resources have changed very little since the last reporting period because of lower levels of investment and associated exploration efforts reflecting current, depressed market conditions.
Worldwide exploration and mine development expenditures as of 1 January 2015 totalled USD 2.9 billion, a 10% increase over 2013 figures. Over 38% of these exploration and development expenditures were devoted to non-domestic activities with the majority of expenditures made by China. From 2012 to 2014, domestic exploration and mine development expenditures decreased in many countries, mainly as a result of the declining uranium price which slowed down many exploration and mine development projects, particularly in the junior uranium mining sector. Significant decreases are reported for Argentina, Australia, Canada, Finland, Kazakhstan, Russia, South Africa, Spain and the United States. In contrast, Brazil, China, the Czech Republic, Jordan, Mexico and Turkey reported increases in expenditures during this period. The most significant increases in domestic expenditures are reported by China with a steady increase in expenditures of USD 131 000 in 2012, USD 189 000 in 2013 and USD 197 000 in 2014. Despite a slowdown in the industry in more recent years, following peak levels of activity associated with high uranium prices in 2007-2008, the majority of reporting countries have maintained domestic exploration and mine development expenditures above pre-2007 levels.
Non-domestic exploration and development expenditures, although reported only by China, France, Japan and Russia, increased from USD 185 million in 2012 to more than USD 692 million in 2013 and USD 812 million in 2014. Non-domestic development expenses for China have been projected to reach over USD 777 million in 2015 principally because of investment in the Husab mine in Namibia, pushing non-domestic exploration and development expenditures to a total of more than USD 846 million in 2015.
For this reporting period, China accounts for the highest non-domestic and domestic exploration and development expenditures supporting reports of their strong commitment to growth in nuclear power. Overall, world uranium production decreased by 4.1%, from 58 411 tU in 2012 to 55 975 tU as of 1 January 2015. The changes are principally the result of decreased production in Australia, and lower uranium mining output from Brazil, the Czech Republic, Malawi, Namibia and Niger. Within OECD countries, production decreased from 17 956 tU in 2012 to 16 185 tU in 2014, primarily as a result of decreased production in Australia and, to a smaller extent, in the Czech Republic. From 2012 to 2014, uranium was produced in 21 different countries; the same number as in the last reporting period, with Germany, Hungary and France producing uranium as the result of mine remediation activities. Kazakhstan’s growth in production continued, but at a much slower pace, and it remains the world’s largest producer, reporting production of 22 781 tU in 2014 and 23 800 tU in 2015. Production in Kazakhstan in 2014 totalled more than the combined production that same year in Canada and Australia, the second and third largest producers of uranium, respectively.
In situ leaching (ISL, sometimes referred to as in situ recovery, or ISR) production continued to dominate uranium production accounting for 51% of world production as of 1 January 2015, largely as a result of continued production increases from Kazakhstan and other ISL projects in Australia, China, Russia, the United States and Uzbekistan.
Underground mining (27%), open-pit mining (14%) and co-product and by-product recovery from copper and gold operations (7%), heap leaching (<1%) and other methods (<1%) accounted for the remaining uranium production shares.
Although the focus of this publication remains uranium resources, production and demand, environmental and social aspects of the uranium production cycle are gaining increasing importance and, as in the last few editions, updates on activities in this area are included in the national reports. With uranium production ready to expand, in some cases to countries hosting uranium production for the first time, the continued development of transparent, safe and well-regulated operations that minimise environmental impacts is crucial.
In Botswana, A-Cap Resources established the Safety, Health, Radiation, Environment and Community Group aimed at informing, educating and involving local communities through meetings held on a regular basis. An environmental and social impact assessment study of the Letlhakane Project was completed and submitted to the Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) in 2015. Specialist studies have determined that with appropriate mitigation, all environmental and social aspects during the construction and planned operations will be addressed. Namibia continues to make progress in a number of environmental and social issues, building on the establishment of the Rössing Foundation in 1978. The foundation’s activities focus on education, health care, environmental management and radiation safety in the uranium industry. With the development of the Husab mine, Swakop Uranium has also engaged in social responsibility programmes, including committing itself to local procurement, recruitment and employment, training, education and responsible environmental management practices. To this end, projects were initiated to address research needs identified in the company’s environmental management plan, including groundwater monitoring.
In several other countries with closed uranium production facilities (i.e. Brazil, Canada, the Czech Republic, France, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, the Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Ukraine and the United States), updates of remedial and monitoring activities are provided in the respective country reports. Additional information on environmental aspects of uranium production may be found in Managing Environmental and Health Impacts of Uranium Mining (NEA, 2014), which outlines significant improvements that have been undertaken in these areas since the early strategic period of uranium mining to the present day.
Despite recent declines in electricity demand in some developed countries, global demand is expected to continue to grow in the next several decades to meet the needs of a growing population, particularly in developing countries. Since nuclear power plant operation produces competitively priced, baseload electricity that is essentially free of greenhouse gas emissions, and the deployment of nuclear power enhances the security of energy supply, it is projected to remain an important component of energy supply.
However, the Fukushima Daiichi accident has eroded public confidence in nuclear power in some countries, and prospects for growth in nuclear generating capacity are thus being reduced and are subject to even greater uncertainty than usual. In addition, the abundance of low-cost natural gas in North America and the risk-averse investment climate have reduced the competitiveness of nuclear power plants in liberalised electricity markets.
Government and market policies that recognise the benefits of low-carbon electricity production and the security of energy supply provided by nuclear power plants could help alleviate these competitive pressures. Nuclear power nonetheless is projected to grow considerably in regulated electricity markets with increasing electricity demand and a growing need for clean air electricity generation. Regardless of the role that nuclear energy ultimately plays in meeting future electricity demand, the uranium resource base described in this publication is more than adequate to meet projected requirements for the foreseeable future. The challenge in the coming years is likely to be less one of adequacy of resources than adequacy of production capacity development due to poor uranium market conditions.
Original URL offline: http://www.oecd-nea.org/ndd/pubs/2016/7301-uranium-2016.pdf
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