Could U.S. Blunder into a Nuclear Arms Race in the Middle East?

Nuclear Power Industry

Dr. Conca opines that between potentially mishandling the Iran Nuclear Deal, and alienating the burgeoning nuclear power programs in the Middle East, the United States risks bungling an opportunity to direct the region’s nuclear future and, instead, might cede that leadership to Russia, China or South Korea. Saudi Arabia is looking to acquire nuclear technology in the form of a civilian nuclear power program. Which sounds good - similar to what the United Arab Emirates is doing. Since actual nuclear power has nothing to do with weapons, that’s great. However, Saudi Arabia considers itself the Sunni Leader in the world and a bulwark against Iran, which considers itself the Shia leader in the world. The Saudis will not restrict themselves in any way nuclear relative to Iran. Which means uranium enrichment and maybe reprocessing of used nuclear fuel.

 If the White House does not extend sanctions waivers under the Iran Nuclear Deal by the May 12 deadline, things will get very complicated. The Deal could fall apart, the United States might try to re-impose sanctions unilaterally without the support of Europe or Asia, and would push our allies and adversaries into a complex Q&A of ‘Will Iran restart its nuclear weapons program?’ or ‘Who gets Iranian oil?’ or ‘Who keeps doing business with U.S. banks?’

The Saudis have already stated that if Iran acquires nuclear weapons, then Saudi Arabia will as well. The new Saudi leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, seems not afraid to take bold actions.

Which makes America’s role thorny. We’re not supposed to support a country’s civilian nuclear power program if it looks like they will also build a nuclear weapons program. For seventy years, America has strongly regulated trade in nuclear materials, equipment, and technology to deter, limit or slow the possible use of these materials, which were designed for peaceful purposes, to help make nuclear weapons.

Saudi Arabia, which has no nuclear power plants, plans to construct sixteen reactors over the next 25 years. The Kingdom has solicited bids for the first two reactors (small modular reactors from Argentina and Korea) and hopes to sign contracts by the end of this year. American nuclear companies are looking to bid on the upcoming larger multibillion-dollar projects.

In February, Secretary of Energy Rick Perry led an interagency delegation to London to discuss a nuclear agreement with Khalid Bin Abdulaziz Al-Falih, the Saudi Arabian Minister of Energy and Industry. It would be a huge loss if the United States did not have a large role in the Saudis’ nuclear future given our lead in safety and all-things nuclear. Last month, Sharon Squassoni from the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University, testified before the U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs on the ‘The Implications of Nuclear Cooperation with Saudi Arabia’ and summed up the pros and cons of partnering with Saudi Arabia.

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Original URL: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2018/04/30/could-we-blunder-into-a-nuclear-arms-race-in-the-middle-east/#340de6da4738