The years's "Red Book" reports that total identified uranium resources have increased by only 0.1% since 2013. The resource base has changed very little due to lower levels of investment and associated exploration efforts reflecting current, depressed uranium market conditions. Total identified resources (reasonably assured and inferred) as of 1 January 2015 amounted to 5 718 400 tonnes of uranium metal (tU) in the <USD 130/kgU (<USD 50/lb U3O8) category, a decrease of 3.1% compared to 1 January 2013. In the highest cost category (<USD 260/kgU or <USD 100/lb U3O8), total identified resources amount to 7 641 600 tU, an increase of only 0.1% compared to the total reported for 2013.
A decrease in reasonably assured resources (RAR) was reported for this edition in all cost categories, with the exception of the <USD 80/kgU category (<USD 30/lb U3O8). The decrease in RAR was offset by increases in inferred resources reported for all cost categories. The most significant change is reported in the <USD 80/kgU category, with an increase of 20.9% in inferred resources, compared to values reported in 2013. This can be primarily attributed to the addition of 208 400 tU of inferred resources from China and Kazakhstan. At the 2014 level of uranium requirements, identified resources are sufficient for over 135 years of supply for the global nuclear power fleet. Moreover, an additional 72 700 tU of resources have been identified by the NEA/IAEA as resources reported by companies that are not yet included in national resource totals.
Total undiscovered resources (prognosticated resources and speculative resources) as of 1 January 2015 amounted to 7 422 700 tU, a minor decrease from the 7 697 700 tU in the previous edition (NEA/IAEA, 2014). It is important to note that in some cases, including those of major producing countries with large identified resource inventories (e.g. Australia, Canada and the United States), estimates of undiscovered resources are either not reported or estimates have not been updated for several years.
The uranium resource figures presented in this volume are a snapshot of the situation as of 1 January 2015. Resource figures are dynamic and related to commodity
prices. Identified resources have changed very little since the last reporting period because of lower levels of investment and associated exploration efforts reflecting
current, depressed market conditions.
It is important to note that in some cases, including those of major producing countries with large identified resource inventories (e.g. Australia, Canada and the United States), estimates of undiscovered resources are either not reported or estimates have not been updated for several years. The uranium resource figures presented in this volume are a snapshot of the situation as of 1 January 2015. Resource figures are dynamic and related to commodity prices. Identified resources have changed very little since the last reporting period because of lower levels of investment and associated exploration efforts reflecting current, depressed market conditions. Uranium exploration and mine development expenditures increased between 2013 and 2015. Nevertheless, no significant resources were added to the resource base during this reporting period as the expenditure increase can be largely attributed to the development of the Cigar Lake mine in Canada and the Husab mine in Namibia. Exploration expenditures continued to decrease because of low uranium prices. Global uranium mine production has decreased by 4% since 2013. However, production is still above 2011 levels, and Kazakhstan, currently the world's leading producer, continues to increase production, but at a slower pace having backed off by 10% of more in early 2017.
With uranium production projected to expand, efforts are being made to develop safe mining practices and to continue to minimize environmental impacts. Demand for uranium is expected to continue to rise for the foreseeable future as nuclear power is projected to grow considerably in regulated electricity markets with increasing electricity demand and a growing need for clean air electricity generation. The currently defined resource base is more than adequate to meet high case uranium demand through 2035, but doing so will depend upon timely investments to turn resources into refined uranium ready for nuclear fuel production. Challenges remain in the global uranium market with high levels of oversupply and inventories, resulting in continuing pricing pressures. Other concerns in mine development include geopolitical factors, technical challenges and increasing expectations of governments hosting uranium mining.
Regardless of the role that nuclear energy ultimately plays in meeting future electricity demand, the uranium resource base described in this publication is more than adequate to meet projected requirements for the foreseeable future. The challenge in the coming years is likely to be less one of adequacy of resources than adequacy of production capacity development due to poor uranium market conditions.
Original working URL: https://www.oecd-nea.org/ndd/pubs/2016/7301-uranium-2016.pdf
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