Chinese Coal-Fired Electricity Generation Expected to Decline, Natural Gas and Nuclear Power to Rise

Coal and Related Carbon Resources / Exploration, Production, Coal Ash, & Rare Earths

Date posted: 09/29/17

Louise Mulhall reports that Coal-fired electricity generation in China, the world’s largest coal consumer, is expected to remain flat through 2040, according to EIA’s International Energy Outlook 2017 (IEO2017). Other fuels, such as renewables, natural gas, and nuclear power, are expected to make up increasing shares of China’s electricity generation. Despite declines in coal’s generation share, IEO2017 projects that coal will remain an important component of China’s energy mix, peaking at nearly 4400 billion kilowatthours (bkWh) by 2030. However, as China continues to replace older, less efficient generators with more efficient units, China’s power sector coal consumption is expected to peak as soon as 2018, at 4800 million short t. As part of China’s 13th Five-Year Plan, a total of 150 (GW) of new coal capacity has been canceled or postponed until at least 2020. Increasingly strict controls on total coal capacity and power plant emissions are expected to prompt the retirement of up to 20 GW of older plants and spur technological upgrades to China’s remaining 1000 GW of coal power. Coal remains China’s largest source of electricity, accounting for more than 72% of the nation’s electricity generation in 2015. In the Reference case of EIA’s long-term international energy projections, China’s coal share of generation steadily decreases to nearly 50% by 2040, as generation shares from renewables and nuclear both increase. By 2040, fossil fuels (coal, natural gas, and petroleum) are still expected to make up most of China’s electricity generation mix. China’s most recent Five-Year Plan also set a target for the addition of 58 GW of nuclear capacity by 2020. Currently, China has 38 operational nuclear power reactors, with another 19 under construction. In 2015, China’s nuclear power plants generated an estimated 197 billion KW of electricity, representing 3.6% of China’s total net electricity generation.