Steve Mackowski presents in this series of articles rare-earth pricing data, publicly released company information and relevant market information. He provides commentary on this information where there is either a significant change in the fundamentals of rare earths or a significant development for the company. It is important to note that the company information will not simply be a reflection of progress through to PEA and onwards. The single most important fundamental issue in the rare earth oxide business is what is happening in China. China is such a behemoth in REO production and value adding, that it is essential to understand the conditions surrounding China conditions to understand the environment under which non-China REO developments are taking place. Ten years ago, Dudley Kingsnorth produced what became known as the Dudley Graph. It indicated a world REO market of about 100,000 tonnes broken up into China and Rest of World (ROW) production against predicted demand.
The key fundamental in the Dudley Graph was a demand growth CAGR of 8 to 10% that required a new REO production facility to come on-line every year to meet the gap between production and demand. That gap was proposed to be filled by non-China projects. Well, that growth has never materialized. There are many theories. But between China rationalizing its REO industry, Chinese illegal production, reduced demand due to substitution or improved utilization of REO, that growth just has not appeared. However, as a fundamental, it still holds true. The expected expansion of magnet-centric technology is still predicted, as is the increased need for lanthanum, but it is all about the timing. See Part I ... https://investorintel.com/sectors/technology-metals/technology-metals-intel/mackowski-rare-earths-monthly-part/
Original URL: https://investorintel.com/sectors/technology-metals/technology-metals-intel/investorintel-rare-earths-monthly-pt-ii/
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