Temperatures are Soaring at the North Pole . . . Again

Climate Change, Anthropocene, & Associated Issues

Date posted: 12/29/16

Brian Kahn reports that for the second year in a row, the Arctic is facing a late December heat wave (at least by Arctic winter standards). Temperatures are forecast to soar about 50 degrees F above normal, which would bring them near the freezing point at the North Pole. As isolated data points, the back-to-back winter warm-ups would be weird. But taken in the larger context, it is part of an unsettling trend for a region that is being rapidly reshaped by climate change. A quick recap ... Arctic sea ice hit its lowest peak recorded in March (besting the record set in 2015), hit it second-lowest extent recorded in September, and started shrinking in November, at a time when ice should be growing, following a heat wave. Just how much of a heat wave did the Arctic deal with in November? At the North Pole, temperatures in November averaged an astonishing 27 degrees F above normal, and the Northwest Passage also opened up in August. Which brings us to December. Warm air has been pouring into the region, but a truly unseasonable blast is forecast for the end of the week. Temperatures across much of the region will be anywhere from 30 to 50 degrees F above normal, with the warmest temperatures centered around the North Pole on the eve of Christmas Eve. The cold air normally over the Arctic has gone, and is now in Siberia. The cold will descend on the region, providing the weather equivalent of a lump of coal in thousands of people stockings. Using peer-reviewed methods to assess the impact of climate change, the current heat wave is essentially a 1-in-50 year event. That makes it rare. But when researchers evaluated whether it could have occurred at the start of the 20th century, when temperatures in the region were about 4.5 deg F cooler, and it was basically impossible for this type of warm streak to occur, in that the probability was so small that it is hard to estimate, and the magnitude of change is a totally different condition...i.e., climate change.