Jocelyn Aspa reports that 2016 has been another challenging year for the rare earth industry. Nonetheless, analysts were not expecting much from the industry at the end of 2015. Analysts indicate that demand for select rare earth elements ought to remain healthy but disconnected from overall price.
Similarly, Industrial Minerals note that the Chinese supply will continue pulling down prices until there is a firm policy in place to shut down artisan mines, or the emergence of new demand.
Still, the rare earth industry is expected to recover at some point and some say the focus of the rare earth sector in the coming years will intensify on neodymium deficit with a rise in prices over the next five years. The long-term performance of this industry is threatened by potential substitution of NdFeB technologies in HEVS and EVs and wind turbines.
Of course, the Chinese government plans to regulate rare-earth production to 140,000 tpy, beginning in 2020 will also impact the industry moving forward. That said, according to analysts, the global permanent rare earth industry looks to reach $41.41 billion by 2022. In terms of rare earth supply, it is expected to remain stable after WTO intervention and international agreements providing opportunities for sustainable market growth.
The Watch industrial policy in China suggests that this may open the door for financing for western rare-earth elements projects to push forward. While it seems as though the rare earth market is expected for another slow year.
Prices for commonly oversupplied rare earths, such as cerium and lanthanum, were on the downtrend, but the more in-demand phosphor and magnet rare earths were hit hard as well. Yttrium oxide was only US$10.50 per kg at the start of 2015, but now it is US$4. Dysprosium oxide was US$290 per kg, now it is US$218.
Terbium oxide and europium oxide, respectively, were US$550 per kg and US$550 per kg in January of 2015, now they are US$380 and US$100, respectively.
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