Ed Price reports that China intends to land on the Moon and to have a base there by 2020. That is only 4 years away. And of course, SpaceX intends to have a settlement on Mars by 2024. Maybe the explosion of its rocket recently will put a dampener on that, but Price doubts that. He thinks that Elon Musk has the chops to keep the plan on course, no matter what.
Not to be outdone, Russia plans to get to Mars by 2030. So it is in the running for the Red Planet too. India also has plans to land on Mars, maybe with help from France. So the race is on. Expect others to join the jousting soon. Likely Japan. How about North Korea ...?
Mars is not the only target either. The Moon and Mars are the low-hanging fruit, so to speak. But interest is growing in exploring Titan. NASA is playing around with an idea to explore the Titan oceans by a small submarine. Europa and Ganymede are also attracting more interest, although not at this stage for settlement. But the planetary settlement meme is now well in play. Humans are now committed to settling at least the Moon and Mars. Soon.
Now we are going to be faced with a lot of tiresome details. Can Mars properties be sold back to Elon Musk if the settlement fails? What kind of money will we use there? Will citizenship of Mars or the Moon be granted? Under what conditions? So soon the lawyers are going to get involved.
Problem is, what is the basis for space law? As you are probably aware, there is a basis. It is the 5 treaties drafted by the UN by the Committee on Peaceful Uses of Outer Space. The problem is that most of the treaties have not been signed by most nations. The leading space nations have signed just about nothing of real substance.
At the moment there is a verbal agreement between the big nations not to use the planets for military purposes and to play nice in space. But you would not have to be a cynic to think that such an arrangement is not going to last ...?
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