Steve Hatfield-Dodds, et al., report that over two centuries of economic growth have put undeniable pressure on the ecological systems that underpin human well-being. While it is agreed that these pressures are increasing, views are divided on how they may be alleviated.
Some suggest technological advances will automatically keep us from transgressing key environmental thresholds. Others that policy reform can reconcile economic and ecological goals. While a third school argues that only a fundamental shift in societal values can keep human demands within the Earth ecological limits. They use use novel integrated analysis of the energy-water-food nexus, rural-land use (including biodiversity), material flows and climate change to explore whether mounting ecological pressures in Australia can be reversed, while the population grows and living standards improve.
They show that, in the right circumstances, economic and environmental outcomes can be decoupled. Although economic growth is strong across all scenarios, environmental performance varies widely, and pressures are projected to more than double, stabilize or fall markedly by 2050. However, they find no evidence that decoupling will occur automatically. Nor do they find that a shift in societal values is required. Rather, extensions of current policies that mobilize technology and incentivize reduced pressure account for the majority of differences in environmental performance.
Their results show that Australia can make great progress towards sustainable prosperity, if it chooses to do so.
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