WNO Update on Supply of Uranium - Mid 2016

Uranium (Nuclear Minerals) / Exploration, Mining, Marketing, & Acquisitions

Date posted: 09/16/16

The World Nuclear Organization just updated its statements on the world supply of uranium. Current usage is about 66,000 tU per yr. Thus the world present measured resources of uranium (5.9 Mt) in the cost category around 1.5 times present spot prices and used only in conventional reactors, are enough to last for about 90 years. This represents a higher level of assured resources than is normal for most minerals. Further exploration and higher prices will certainly, on the basis of present geological knowledge, yield further resources as present ones are used up. An initial uranium exploration cycle was military-driven, over 1945 to 1958. The second cycle was about 1974 to 1983, driven by civil nuclear power and in the context of a perception that uranium might be scarce. There was relatively little uranium exploration between 1985 and 2003, so the significant increase in exploration effort since then could conceivably double the known economic resources despite adjustments due to increasing costs. In the two years 2005-06 the known uranium resources increased by 15% (17% in the cost category to $80 per kgU). World uranium exploration expenditure is increasing, as the the data make clear. In the third uranium exploration cycle from 2004 to the end of 2013 about US$ 16 billion was spent on uranium exploration and deposit delineation on over 600 projects. In this period over 400 new junior companies were formed or changed their orientation to raise over US$ 2 billion for uranium exploration. Much of this was spent on previously-known deposits. All this was in response to increased uranium price in the market and the prospect of firm future prices.The price of a mineral commodity also directly determines the amount of known resources which are economically extractable. On the basis of analogies with other metal minerals, a doubling of price from present levels could be expected to create about a tenfold increase in measured economic resources.