EIA Sees Strong Growth in Nuclear Generation to 2040?

Uranium (Nuclear Minerals) / Nuclear Power - Economics, Design, & Industry

Date posted: 05/14/16

Global nuclear electricity generation is expected to almost double by 2040, according to the latest projection by the U.S. DoE EIA. Most of this growth will be in the developing world, it said. Although consumption of non-fossil fuels is expected to grow faster than consumption of fossil fuels, fossil fuels will still account for 78% of primary energy in use in 2040. Coal will be the slowest growing energy source, rising by 0.6% annually from 153 quadrillion Btu in 2012 to 180 quadrillion Btu in 2040. China, the U.S. and India will remaining the top three coal-consuming countries, together accounting for more than 70% of world coal use. Natural gas consumption will grow 1.9% annually over the same period. According to the EIA, global electricity generation will increase by 69% between 2012 and 2040, from 21.6 trillion kWh in 2012 to 25.8 trillion kWh in 2020 and 36.5 trillion kWh in 2040. Nuclear energy will be the third fastest growing after natural gas. Global nuclear generating capacity is expected to see 2.3% annual growth between 2012 and 2040, from 2.3 trillion kilowatt-hours to 4.5 trillion kWh. Its share of total primary energy over this period will increase from 4% to 6%. Concerns about energy security and greenhouse gas emissions support the development of new nuclear generating capacity, the EIA said. China alone, which plans to add 139 GWe of nuclear capacity by 2040, accounting for 61% of world nuclear capacity growth. Among OECD countries, South Korea has a sizable increase in nuclear generating capacity (15 GWe). However, possible reactor shutdowns in Canada and Europe, together with reduced capacity in Japan, will see an overall drop of 6 GWe in nuclear capacity in OECD nations by 2040. EIA continues downplay the anticipated nuclear expansion because the Obama Administration continues to naively promote solar and wind. But let us ask the Secretary of Energy what he really thinks will be the likely outcome in 20 yrs. Baseline power is needed.