Nuclear Power in Vietnam

International Resources, Funding Society Responses

Date posted: 12/22/15

Vietnam has considered establishing nuclear power generation since 1995, and firm proposals surfaced in 2006. 1. Russia has agreed to finance and build 2400 MWe of nuclear capacity. 2. Japan has agreed similarly for another 2000 MWe. 3. Electricity use is expected to triple from 2015 to 2030. Vietnam is the most significant of the three lower Mekong countries, with a population of 88 million. It produced 123 TWh gross of electricity in 2012, 53 TWh from hydro, 44 TWh from gas, 22 TWh from coal and 2 TWh net import from China. Consumption was about 110 billion kWh, giving per capita consumption of 1250 kWh per yr. In 2013 Vietnam produced 124.6 TWh from 32 GWe of plant (at year end). In 2009, 33% of the country's capacity was hydro, 17% gas (CCGT), 12% coal, 6% oil, all under Vietnam Electricity Holding Co. (EVN), and 33% was with independent power producers, resulting from build-operate-transfer arrangements outside EVN. Demand is growing rapidly, resulting in rationing. Electricity demand growth, mostly in the south, has been 15% per yr. to 2015. A 500 kV grid runs the length of the country and some 95% of the rural population has access to electricity. Projections of power demand (base scenario) in 2011 were: 30.8 GWe, 194 TWh in 2015 (33% hydro, 35.5% coal), 52.0 GWe, 320 TWh in 2020 (26% hydro, 46% coal, 17% gas, 1.5% nuclear), 77.0 GWe, 490 TWh in 2025 (21% hydro, 46% coal, 16% gas, 6% nuclear), 110.2 GWe, 695 TWh in 2030 (16% hydro, 56% coal, 11% gas, 8% nuclear – with nuclear share then increasing to 20-25% by 2050). US EIA figures estimate the Vietnam generating capacity will expand from 42 GWe in 2015 to about 135 GWe in 2030. The 2015 mix is 36% coal, 25% oil and gas, 33% hydro. That in 2030 is projected 56% coal, 13% oil & gas, 16% hydro and 8% nuclear, with some imports and other renewables in each case.