Art Markman blogs that he was just reading Nate Silver book, The Signal and the Noise. The book explores ways that people think about data in a number of settings. In one chapter, Silver examines the data relating to global climate change. As he points out, a careful look at the data and related scientific theories makes a few points clear. First, the idea that increases in carbon dioxide levels in the air lead to increases in temperature is well-accepted as science - and has been for a long time. The evidence that human activity is causing increases in global levels of CO2 in the atmosphere is also well accepted. The big question is only how quickly global temperatures will rise. As Silver points out, there has been a consistent temperature increase that is significant, though smaller than some of the initial estimates - because of other factors like the amount of sulphur that is also being put into the atmosphere by human activity. The point is, there is scientific consensus about the basic tenets relating to global climate change. Scientists agree that human activity is influencing global temperatures. They disagree only in how quickly it is happening.
Yet, if you scour the internet, you will find a number of websites and blogs out there that are run by climate-change skeptics. These sites suggest - contrary to the scientific consensus - that there is actually widespread disagreement among scientists about climate change, and that there is no compelling evidence that global temperatures are rising. For those people who oppose climate change on the basis of beliefs about the free-market, it would be better to engage in a discussion about the economic costs of rising temperatures. For example, debate could focus on the impact of recent extreme weather patterns on business and agriculture. This debate might help to reduce the strength of the opposition to regulations on pollution, which might then influence beliefs about climate change.