US Report Predicts CO2 Emissions have Peaked, Energy Independence Near

Climate Change, Anthropocene, & Associated Issues

Date posted: 05/21/14

EIA predicts that the slice of domestic energy production that comes from renewables will only increase from 11 to 12 percent over the next 30 years.But what is startling is that, despite the slow rise in renewables, the EIA thinks that the US is already past its peak of carbon emissions (2005 and 2007 both had roughly similar totals and represent the peak). As shown in the chart in the article, the energy used for each dollar of GDP has been dropping steadily since the 1980s; carbon emissions for each dollar have recently started dropping even faster. The report projects that those trends will both continue, with energy/dollar dropping by a total of 43 percent by 2040. In addition to the growth of natural gas and rise of renewables, the report ascribes this drop to an increase in efficiency (vehicle fuel efficiency in particular is improving significantly). This will not result in a big drop in carbon emissions continued GDP growth will offset these tends but it could mean a prolonged plateau out to 2040. And, as noted above, policy changes may actually help drive a drop, and any climate agreements are likely to require one.