Who is Gonna Pay for Global Warming?

Climate Change, Anthropocene, & Associated Issues

Date posted: 08/13/13

The author suggests that the costs are tricky to calculate and fraught with uncertainties, but the relative values are reasonable. The costs include lost crop yields, drowned coastal land, destroyed fisheries, extreme weather effects, more energy for cooling, more desalination for drinking water, even a significant loss of pollinators. The number and complexity of effects is stunning simply because it involves the whole world. To prevent the worst effects will cost the world about 2 per cent of global GDP per year, or just over a trillion dollars, although that figure also rises the longer we wait. Since our total energy costs are about 2 per cent of global GDP, this is a significant cost to bear, basically doubling our energy costs. By the same token, 2 per cent of GDP is not a horrendous amount to invest in saving the world as we know it. Most studies assume that the power and transportation sectors around the world would need to be at least 60 per cent decarbonized (CO2) by mid-century for atmospheric CO2 concentrations to stabilize at or below 550 ppm (suggested by the 2006 Stern Review). This is the equivalent of eliminating all coal plus replacing all oil with non-carbon-emitting fuels like electricity generated from nuclear or renewables such as biofuels. These are unlikely given the steep energy growth rates of the developing world, and the lethargy of the developed world to change.