Rimmer reported in early March 2026 that Germany’s decision in the wake of the Fukushima disaster to decommission its nuclear-energy program may have raised electricity prices by 25% and German ‘regret’: Steep costs continue to be paid for 2011 decision to scrap nuclear-power plants.
plant at Gundremmingen in southern Germany, came after the accident at
Fukushima, Japan, in 2011.Photo: AFP/Getty Images
An energy analysis published by JPMorgan has attached numbers to the extent of an error that Chancellor Friedrich Merz has admitted in the German decision to shutter nuclear-power production in the wake of the accident at Japan’s Fukushima plant in 2011.
The assessment was made by JPMorgan Asset and Wealth Management’s chairman of market and investment strategy, Michael Cembalest in a lengthy report on energy markets. He devoted one chapter to what he labels Germany’s “nuclear entscheidungsreue” or “nuclear regret’” He quoted Merz as stating,
“So, we’re now undertaking the most expensive energy transition in the world; I know of no other country that makes things so expensive and difficult as Germany.”
Cembalest highlights research undertaken by JPMorgan that scrutinized the costs incurred to the German economy stemming from its decision to decommission its nuclear-power plants after the Fukushima incident. Had it not made this panicky move, Cembalest estimates that Germany would have required 50% less electricity generation from fossil fuels, 84% less generation from imported natural gas, 27% less fossil-fuel capacity and 42% less natural-gas capacity.
Office, JPMAM, November 2025
Cembalest estimates electricity prices in 2024 were almost 25% higher than they would have been, were the country to have persevered in its nuclear program. As a share of consumption, Germany’s electricity imports are double what they were a decade ago.
JPMAM, November 2025
The competitive repercussions have been severe: Germany’s industrial power prices are now three times higher than those of the U.S. and China. This partly explains, Cembalest writes, the deindustrialization that has afflicted the German economy so debilitatingly in the last few years. Cembalest cites research by Radiant Energy Group that the cost of restarting Class 2 reactors could be $1 billion to $ 3 billion each. It’s feasible, they say, but it’s not cheap.
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