Huhn reported in late December 2025 over the past few months, something important has shifted in the uranium market. Some brief context – Goldman Sachs has been one of the main financial players establishing a large long position in the uranium commodity over the past couple of years...this accelerated in 2025.
Huhn gained access to their recently-published uranium research, and he wanted to share the main takeaways with you because he believes they are important and largely in-line with our views at Uranium Insider.
According to this recent analysis from Goldman, long-term uranium demand expectations have risen materially, while long-term supply forecasts have remained essentially unchanged. In Goldman’s words, this shift is “laying the groundwork for a new contracting cycle and upward pressure on prices.”
That combination matters.
A Structural Demand Shift Is Underway
Goldman Sachs now expects a meaningful acceleration in U.S. nuclear reactor construction, driven by a combination of executive mandates and public-private partnerships involving Westinghouse, Cameco, and Brookfield Asset Management, with commitments from the U.S. government exceeding $80 billion.
Their updated forecast includes:
- 20 new U.S. reactors built between 2025 and 2045,
- The restart of three reactors,
- The resumption of construction on two additional units,
- A rise in assumed average reactor lifetimes from 75 years to 80 years.
As a rule of thumb, each 1 GW reactor requires roughly 500,000 pounds of uranium per year. Based on Goldman’s modeling, these developments imply:
- ~12.5 million pounds of incremental annual uranium demand, and
- ~37.5 million pounds of additional one-time initial fuel loading demand
This demand did not exist in their long-term forecasts just months ago.
The Supply Side Has Not Materially Changed
Crucially, Goldman notes that long-term supply assumptions have not increased to offset these new demand expectations.
As a result, their updated uranium supply-demand model now shows:
- An additional 211 million pounds of cumulative deficit between 2025 and 2045,
- A widening total cumulative deficit from 1.703 billion pounds to 1.914 billion pounds,
- A potential structural shortfall approaching 32%.
Goldman explicitly states that this type of long-term imbalance is expected to drive significant price increases.
Contracting Momentum Is Already Building
Goldman also points out that utility contracting volumes began accelerating in October and November, and they expect this momentum to continue into 2026. Utility spot procurement and carry-trade demand, coupled with very strong secondary/financial demand, has tightened the spot and mid-term uranium markets. With this backdrop, multiple large nuclear utilities are now shifting their procurement strategies to focus on “security of supply” rather than only “price.”
This is precisely how prior uranium cycles transition from complacency to urgency.
Why This Matters for Investors
While the uranium market has been slowly rebalancing since the cycle low in December 2016, utilities have yet to contract at replacement rates or in significant volume at incentive prices – hence the insufficient supply response. When utilities are forced back into the market after prolonged commercial inventory drawdowns, contracting cycles tend to be compressed, competitive, and price-responsive.
While this bull market is not in its first phase, utility engagement with the long-term U3O8 market is still in its very initial stages. The real uranium fireworks are ahead of us. With long-term demand expectations rising sharply – and supply unable to respond quickly – the setup for the next phase of this cycle is becoming increasingly clear.
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