A Joint Report by the Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency indicates that Uranium 2024: Resources, Production and Demand presents the most recent review of world uranium market fundamentals and offers a statistical profile of the uranium industry.
It contains 62 country reports on uranium exploration, resources, production and reactorrelated requirements, 48 of which were prepared from officially reported government data and narratives, and 14 that were prepared by the secretariats of the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The report includes projections for nuclear generating capacity and reactor-related uranium requirements through 2050, as well as a discussion of long-term uranium supply and demand issues.
The data reporting period for Uranium 2024: Resources, Production and Demand (also known as the “Red Book”) covers 1 January 2021 to 1 January 2023 (calendar years 2021 and 2022), although some relevant information for 2023 and 2024 is also included in the discussions.
Resources
Total global uranium resources are largely unchanged compared to the previous edition of the Red Book, with total identified recoverable resources at a trend of re-assignment of resources to higher cost categories continued with this edition, and as of 1 January 2023, only four countries reported any resources in the Globally, Australia continues to dominate the world’s uranium resources with 28% of the total identified recoverable resources at
Comprehensive reviews and reassessments of Brazil’s and Uzbekistan’s uranium resources resulted in the removal of approximately 170 000 tU of high-cost resources. These and smaller magnitude decreases from mining depletion in Australia and Canada and from an updated resource estimate in Zambia were, at the ongoing exploration activities. Additionally, at at deposits in the Central African Republic and Niger, resulted in the essentially unchanged global identified resources.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
With respect to the lower cost categories (Although resources in this publication are primarily reported as recoverable resources (the potential amount of uranium after deducting for losses from mining and processing), also reporting in situ resources estimates at times provides a view of the full available resource base in the ground, and by quantifying the average recovery (and non-recovered portion) gives an indication of how the available uranium could vary with changes in mining and processing methods.
Total identified in situ resources of 10.7 million tU at unconventional resources are another source of potential future supply and, as reported in the IAEA’s World Distribution of Uranium and Thorium Deposits (UDEPO)1 database in approximately 210 deposits, currently amount to about 57 million tU. It is important to note that in some cases, including several major producing countries with significant identified resource inventories, estimates of undiscovered resources and unconventional resources are either not reported or have not been updated for several years.
The uranium resource figures presented in this edition are a snapshot of the situation as of 1 January 2023, as reported mainly from official government sources. Readers should keep in mind that resource figures are dynamic and related to commodity prices.
Exploration and mining development
The overall picture of worldwide domestic exploration and mine development expenditures is dramatically changed compared to previous recent editions of the Red Book, as a persistent downward trend of several years came to an end. Annual expenditures, which decreased to approximately USD 380 million in 2020 from more than USD 1.5 billion in the years prior to the downturn, recovered to USD 800 million in 2022.
Preliminary data for 2023 expenditures suggest a further increase to USD 840 million. Non-domestic figures, a subset of global exploration and development expenditures, increased from close to USD 50 million in 2020 to approximately USD 70 million in 2022 and USD 80 million expected for 2023
(preliminary data). Total expenditures reflect a response to the depressed uranium market that lasted from mid-2011, and a recent recovery that started in late-2020.
From 2008 to 2014, total domestic expenditures ranged from USD 1.5 to 2.1 billion annually, before steadily declining from USD 876 million in 2015 to USD 377 million in 2020, less than 25% of the prior annual expenditures. Decreased expenditures from 2015 to 2020 were due to persistently low uranium prices that slowed exploration and mine development projects, other than the previously committed development of the Husab mine in Namibia.
Conversely, rising uranium prices and increased interest in nuclear energy since 2020 reversed the trend, and expenditures more than doubled from the 2020 low, to USD 803 million in 2022 and to more than USD 840 million expected for 2023, based on preliminary data. Total exploration and mine development expenditures for 2021, 2022 and 2023 (preliminary estimates) amongst the 27 reporting countries (7 which reported only for 2021 and 2022)
amounted to USD 2.1 billion, with Canada, China, Russia, India, Namibia and Uzbekistan leading the way. Expenditures in these six countries together accounted for 90% of the total, with Canada alone accounting for 34%.
1. IAEA (2018), World Distribution of Uranium and Thorium Deposits, https://infcis.iaea.org/UDEPO/Report/ statistics .
The total quantity of exploration and development drilling for the 22 reporting countries increased by 46%, from 2 704 km in 2020 to 3 955 km in 2022. For 2022, Kazakhstan, China and Uzbekistan each accounted for 27%, 26%, and 18% respectively, with India, Canada, United States, and Namibia accounting for most of the remainder.
Uranium Production
Global uranium mine production increased by 4% from 2020 to 2022. After five years of declining production as major producing countries, including Canada and Kazakhstan, limited production in response to a depressed uranium market, production levels in 2022 began to increase in response to a strong uranium price recovery, a trend that has continued in 2023 and 2024. With 7 400 tU annual capacity of previously idled mines back in production, as of 1 January 2023, the annual production capacity of idled mines had come down to 22 000 tU and a further 5 200 tU of this capacity has since been restarted
or committed for restart. The remaining 16 800 tU of idled annual capacity presents further opportunity; however, many of the remaining idled operations face additional complicating factors such as substantial capital requirements, technical issues and a resource base that may only support significantly less than the stated production capacity.
In 2022, 17 countries produced uranium, with the global total amounting to 49 490 tU. Kazakhstan remained by far the world’s largest producer, at 43% of global production, even as production continued at scaled-back levels. Kazakhstan’s production alone in 2022 amounted to more than the combined production from Canada, Namibia, Australia and Uzbekistan, respectively the second, third, fourth and fifth largest producers of uranium that year. Just six
countries accounted for 90% of the world’s uranium production in 2022, and nine countries accounted for 99%, with Russia, Niger, China, and India the sixth, seventh, eighth and ninth largest producers, respectively.
In situ leaching (ISL) remained the dominant production technology throughout the reporting period, accounting for nearly 60% of total global uranium production in 2022 and approximately 55% in 2023, as the McArthur River mine restart in Canada began to bring back previously idled underground production.
Overall, the downturn in world uranium production reached its low point in 2020 and 2021 at 47 588 tU and 47 361 tU, respectively, subsequently increasing 5% to 49 490 tU in 2022 and a further 10% to 54 345 tU in 2023. Production for 2023 was still just 86% of the 2016 peakproduction of almost 63 000 tU, reached before broad-based production cuts brought about the five-year period of declining production from 2016 to 2021. Within OECD countries, the 2016 to 2021 decline was even more dramatic, primarily due to idling of mines in Canada and the United States in response to the persistently low uranium price market conditions, COVID-19 production suspensions in 2020 and 2021, and the winding down of operations at Australia’s
Ranger mine before closing in early 2021. OECD production saw a remarkable drop of 60% from the 2016 high through the 2021 low.
Environmental and social aspects of uranium exploration and production
With uranium production projected to expand to meet global demand over the medium term, efforts are being made to develop safe mining practices and to continue to minimise environmental impacts. The country reports provide some updates about the environmental and social aspects of uranium mining,
including site remediation and decommissioning projects, which highlight the progress that the uranium industry has made on environmental stewardship.
Although the focus of this publication remains uranium resources, production and demand, the environmental and social aspects of the uranium production cycle are of great importance and, as in the last few editions, updates on activities in this area have been included in the country reports. With a need for increased uranium production to meet demand, the continued development of transparent, safe and well-regulated operations that minimise environmental
impacts is crucial, particularly for those countries hosting uranium production for the first time.
For this edition, 32 countries provided information on activities related to the environmental aspects of the uranium production cycle, including ongoing work related to closed facilities and policy/regulatory-related issues. Additional information on the environmental aspects of uranium production may be found in Managing Environmental and Health Impacts of Uranium Mining (NEA, 20142), which outlines the significant improvements made in these areas since the early strategic period of uranium mining.
The IAEA Bulletin, Uranium: From Exploration to Remediation (IAEA, 20183), and the IAEA Nuclear Energy Series, Milestones in the Development of National Infrastructure for the Uranium Production Cycle (IAEA, 20234), include some information on this topic. More recently, the NEA published a comprehensive overview of the experiences in the uranium mining industry of working with Indigenous people and local communities to maximise overall benefits for all stakeholders in Maximising Uranium Mining’s Social and Economic Benefits: A Guide for Stakeholders (NEA, 20235).
Uranium demand
Global nuclear capacity is expected to increase in the coming years as energy demand grows.. Reactorrelated uranium needs vary significantly by region, largely reflecting projected nuclear capacity growth, with East Asia anticipated to have the highest annual uranium demand by 2050. Security of supply will
be essential for further nuclear capacity expansion and will, in turn, result in greater uranium demand.
As of 1 January 2023, a total of 438 commercial nuclear reactors were operational globally, with a net generating capacity of 394 GWe requiring about 59 000 tU annually. Taking into account changes in policies announced in several countries and nuclear programmes as of1 January 2023, world nuclear capacity by 2050 is projected to increase to 574 GWe in the low demand case, and to 900 GWe in the high demand case, an increase compared to 2022 capacity of around 45% and 130% respectively. Accordingly, world annual reactor-related uranium requirements are projected to rise to between around 90 000 tU/y and 142 000 tU/y by 2050.
These projections mark a significant upward revision of demand projections compared to the 2022 edition of the Red Book. Nuclear capacity projections vary considerably from region to region. East Asia is projected to experience the largest increase, which, by the year 2050, could result in total capacity of
between 212 GWe and 354 GWe in the low and high cases, respectively, representing an additional capacity of between 90% and 220% of the 111 GWe capacity existing at the end of 2022. While representing a significant regional capacity increase, countries of this region (e.g. China) have consistently demonstrated the ability to build multiple reactors within the set budgets and schedules.
Other regions projected to experience significant nuclear capacity growth by 2050 include the Middle East as well as Central and South Asia, for which the low and high cases project capacity of 67 GWe and 102 GWe, compared to 15 GWe at the end of 2022. In Europe, nuclear capacity in non-EU member countries is projected to increase in the high-case scenario to 124 GWe by 2050, more than doubling 2022 capacity. Even in the low-case scenario, nuclear
capacity of non-EU member countries in Europe is projected to reach around 104 GWe by 2050, nearly doubling 2022 capacity.
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