The IAEA conducted an analysis of the uranium supplies in 2001. A fuel supply is intrinsically fundamental to the sustainability of any energy system. Therefore it is essential that all stakeholders with an interest in understanding nuclear fuel supply have available a systematic analysis of the long term
uranium supply.
Compared with other fuels, the length of the time period of interest to the nuclear power industry is relatively long. The time span for a nuclear power plant from initial planning through to shutdown may be more than 50 years. The life cycle of a uranium mine and mill from the start of exploration through production and shutdown commonly extends from 20 to 40 years. Facilities with a very large resource base may have a life cycle of more than 50 years. It is therefore apparent that uranium supply forecasts looking forward 50 years are essential for long term planning.
It has been nearly a decade since the IAEA prepared its forecast of uranium supply to 2035. Since the preparation of that study uranium supply has become more complex, and the uranium mining and milling industry has changed dramatically. The importance of the secondary, or non-production, supply has increased, while becoming more diversified.
Therefore it was essential that a new analysis be completed to provide the information required for making strategic decisions related to nuclear power and its fuel supply. This study should be useful for government and industry planners, policy and decision makers, and project managers. Potential users include both consumers and producers of nuclear fuel.
This report is part of the IAEA’s programme on uranium supply and demand analysis. As it includes the first IAEA projection of uranium supply to 2050, it provides the reader with an understanding of how some alternative uranium supply scenarios could evolve over this period. The analysis is based on current knowledge of uranium resources and production facilities. It assumes that state of the art production technology will be used to produce uranium in the most economic (lowest cost) way. It takes into account the premise that uranium production facilities can operate with minimal environmental impacts when projects employ the best practices in planning, operations, decommissioning and closure.
The analysis is based on published projections of uranium requirements. These projections cover a range from a very lo to a very high level of utilization of nuclear power. While this analysis is not intended to be a prediction of utilization of nuclear power, it does provide users with an understanding of some of the possible future outcomes for uranium supply.
The IAEA acknowledges the work of all those who were involved in the drafting and review as listed at the end of the report, together with the respective organizations. It is particularly grateful to J. McMurray for his major contribution. The responsible officer at the IAEA was D. Underhill of the Division of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology.
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