Gearino reported in late February 2024 that understanding the weather behind a down year for wind energy, but not in Texas and Oklahoma. Why is that?
A cluster of wind turbines near Wilton, N.D.
Credit: Dan Koeck/The Washington Post via Getty Images
When talking about the growth of renewable energy, Gearino often says that it’s not notable when wind, solar or other technologies reach a record high, because they should be doing that every year. Then 2023 came along. For the first time in more than a decade, the United States had a decrease in utility-scale electricity generation from renewable sources, according to the Energy Information Administration, and corporate U.S. are beginning to back out of large wind projects.
The decrease was small—0.8 percent—but it’s still significant considering substantial growth is considered “normal.”
Gearino set out to understand what factors led to this surprising setback. So he stepped into the office, via a video call, of Mike Augustyniak, director of meteorology at WCCO, a television station in Minneapolis. Why talk to a meteorologist about a problem of energy economics? It turns out that the big issue behind the drop in renewable energy generation was weather, including drought and a lack of strong winds.
“I’ve been forecasting for 27 years, and it’s unlike anything I’ve ever seen,” Augustyniak said.
He was referring to a high pressure weather system that parked over Canada for much of last summer, helping to block warm fronts and cold fronts— and the stronger winds associated with them—that usually would flow across much of Canada and the Upper Midwest. For people on the ground, a high pressure system feels pretty good, with low humidity and a low chance of precipitation, Augustyniak said. But if it goes on too long, things go awry.
“We’ve just baked all the moisture out of the earth, because we did not have any rainfall to replace what would normally kind of evaporate during a nice sunny day,” he said.
One consequence of the lingering high pressure system was wildfires in Canada, which sent smoke far and wide. Another consequence: The wind didn’t blow with as much force as before. Wind farms are the country’s largest source of renewable electricity, and their output was down 2.1 percent in 2023 compared to the prior year.
The results varied a lot by state. Texas, the country’s wind energy leader, increased its generation from wind farms by 4.4 percent. Oklahoma, which ranks third in wind power, was up 0.5 percent.
But Iowa, the second-leading state for wind power, was down 8.5 percent. Among the others with big percentage decreases were North Dakota, down 9.6 percent; Wyoming, down 9.2 percent; and South Dakota, down 8.8 percent. The drop in U.S. wind power came despite an increase, albeit a small one, in the number of wind farms. The country’s wind farms had 144 gigawatts of capacity in 2023, up from 137 gigawatts in the prior year, according to the EIA.
Wind farm development, offshore and onshore, has been slowed by many factors, such as parts shortages and difficulty obtaining permits. Those obstacles are among the reasons that wind energy generation was down last year. Hydropower, the second-leading source of renewable electricity, was down 5.9 percent due in large part to drought that was reducing the flow of water through hydroelectric dams. This affected hydropower in some states that also had a decrease in wind power, such as Washington, but drought conditions also existed in other parts of the country.
Utility-scale solar power stood out for its rapid growth, rising by 14.4 percent over the previous year. But utility-scale solar is still relatively small in the country’s electricity mix, generating less than half as many gigawatt-hours as wind. Gearino did not sugarcoat what was a disappointing year for renewable electricity growth. The United States needs to vastly increase the amount of electricity it gets from renewable sources, and a decrease, even a small one, is not progress. But it is only one year, and it could be an anomaly. I spoke with several people who said wind energy generation looked bad in 2023 partly because 2022 was unusually windy.
And—bear with Gearino here—there are several ways to calculate renewable electricity generation that show growth in 2023 compared to 2022. If small-scale solar, which is not a utility-scale resource, is included along with utility-scale resources, then renewables generation was up by 0.5 percent.
And renewables’ share of the country’s electricity increased just a bit. This is because the size of the overall pie shrank, with a 1.2 percent decrease in generation from all utility-scale sources, due mostly to mild weather that decreased power demand. Renewables were 21.4 percent of the total in 2023, up from 21.3 percent. But even with adjustments to make the numbers look a little better, the results are nowhere close to what’s needed.
One of the questions Gearino had for 2024 and beyond is whether high pressure systems like the one we saw last summer are going to become more common to the point that grid operators and wind farm owners need to adjust their expectations. Augustyniak said the larger dynamic is that the jet stream—the band of winds that flow from west to east—is slowing and researchers are trying to understand the relationship between this shift and climate change. A slower jet stream contributes to an increase in the frequency of weather systems like the one in Canada and the Midwest last summer, with dry conditions and low wind speeds.
If you’re frustrated to learn that climate change may be contributing to weather patterns that make wind energy less predictable, I’m right there with you. But utility-scale wind farms are still being built:
South Fork Wind, an offshore wind farm that will send power to Long Island, New York, has completed installation of all 12 turbines, as Michelle Lewis reports for Electrek. The 132-megawatt project was developed by Ørsted, the Danish energy company, and Eversource, the New England-based utility. It is the first large offshore wind project in the United States to be completed, but “large” is relative. Much bigger projects will follow, including the 806-megawatt Vineyard Wind 1, which is being built in nearby waters and will deliver power to Massachusetts.
Nevertheless, President Biden just funded farmers to build wind farms (here).
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