WNA updated its comprehensive review review of uranium resources in the world in August 2023. Uranium is a relatively common metal, found in rocks and seawater. Economic concentrations of it are not uncommon. Quantities of mineral resources are greater than commonly perceived, and are relative to both market prices and cost of extraction.
The world's known uranium resources increased by at least one-quarter in the last decade due to increased mineral exploration. Uranium is a relatively common element in the crust of the Earth (very much more than in the mantle). It is a metal approximately as common as tin or zinc, and it is a constituent of most rocks and even of the sea.
Table 1: Typical natural uranium concentrations
Very high-grade ore (Canada) – 20% U ..... 200,000 ppm U
High-grade ore – 2% U .......20,000 ppm U
Low-grade ore – 0.1% U ......1000 ppm U
Very low-grade ore* (Namibia) – 0.01% U ........100 ppm U
Granite ......3-5 ppm U
Sedimentary rock ....... 2-3 ppm U
Earth's continental crust (av) .......2.8 ppm U
Seawater .....0.003 ppm U
ppm = parts per million
* Where uranium is at low levels in rock or sands (certainly less than 1000 ppm) it needs to be in a form which is easily separated for those concentrations to be called 'ore' – that is, implying that the uranium can be recovered economically. This means that it needs to be in a mineral form that can easily be dissolved by sulfuric acid or sodium carbonate leaching.
Total world resources of uranium, as with any other mineral or metal, are not known exactly. The only meaningful measure of long-term security of supply is the known reserves in the ground capable of being mined. An orebody is, by definition, an occurrence of mineralisation from which the metal is economically recoverable. Orebodies, and thus measured resources – the amount known to be economically recoverable from orebodies – are therefore relative to both costs of extraction and market prices. For example, at present neither the oceans nor any granites are orebodies, but conceivably either could become so if prices were to rise sufficiently. At ten times the current price*, seawater, for example, might become a potential source of vast amounts of uranium. Thus, any predictions of the future availability of any mineral, including uranium, which are based on current cost and price data, as well as current geological knowledge, are likely to prove extremely conservative. Factors affecting the supply of resources are discussed further and illustrated in Appendix 2.
* US DOE-funded work using polymer absorbent strips suggest $610/kgU in 2014. Japanese (JAERI) research in 2002 using a polymeric absorbent in a nonwoven fabric containing an amidoxime group that was capable of forming a complex with uranyl tricarbonate ions, suggested about $300/kgU.
Uranium availability
Table 2: Uranium resources by country in 2021
tonnes U percentage of world
Australia 1,684,100 28%
Kazakhstan 815,200 13%
Canada 588,500 10%
Russia 480,900 8%
Namibia 470,100 8%
South Africa 320,900 5%
Niger 311,100 5%
Brazil 276,800 5%
China 223,900 4%
Mongolia 144,600 2%
Uzbekistan 131,300 2%
Ukraine 107,200 2%
Botswana 87,200 1%
USA 59,400** 1%
Tanzania 58,200 1%
Jordan 52,500 1%
Other 266,600 5%
World total 6,078,500
Identified resources recoverable (reasonably assured resources plus inferred resources), to $130/kg U, 1/1/21, from OECD NEA & IAEA, Uranium 2022: Resources, Production and Demand ('Red Book'). The total recoverable identified resources to $260/kg U is 7.918 million tonnes U.
** The above estimates for the USA are likely low, See: 1), 2) and 3).
Historical uranium production
Uranium has been successfully mined since the 1940s. Historical uranium production is generally well known, though uncertainties remain about the amount mined in the Soviet Union between 1945 and 1990. Table 3 summarizes historical production. World Nuclear Association has estimated production in countries where data is unavailable.
For historical uranium production, 1945-2022, see the link to the full report below.
Uranium production over the period 1945-2022 can be divided into four distinct phases. A military era, from 1945 to the mid-1960s. The generation of electricity from nuclear fuel was incidental to the nuclear arms race. Production rose rapidly in the 1950s to satisfy the requirement for highly enriched uranium and plutonium. Uranium demand fell sharply in the 1960s and, in response, production halved by the mid-1960s.
Mid-1960s to mid-1980s. A period of rapidly expanding civil nuclear power saw uranium production pick up as reactor orders expanded. Many new mines were brought into production, often underwritten by long-term contracts agreed with electricity utilities in North America, Japan and Western Europe. Western production peaked in 1980 and stayed above annual reactor requirements until 1985.
Mid-1980s to about 2002. By 1985, the nuclear construction program had been cut back severely. Many utilities had signed uranium contracts in anticipation of building more plants. Honoring these created a significant overhang. As mines were being run down, many cut production or closed. Utilities satisfied requirements by drawing down their significant inventories, without recourse to new production. The supply overhang was extended due to the arrival on the Western market of uranium from the former Soviet Union starting in 1993.
Early 2000s to present. There was a strong market reaction to the perception that new primary production would be needed to facilitate an anticipated renaissance in nuclear growth. This took place in the context of a uranium mining sector that had faced unfavorable economic conditions for many years and needed to offset declining and finite secondary supplies. This reaction started in 2003 with a strong upward movement in world uranium prices that continued into 2007 (the spot market price increased by a factor of 13 between early 2003 and mid-2007), but went into a downward correction, accentuated by the Fukushima accident in 2011. Since the accident, uranium prices have fallen to one of the lowest inflation-adjusted levels ever experienced, [but the price reached $83 / pound by December, 2023, and construction of new plants, both largo and SMRs, have begun all over the world, included increasing exploration in the U.S.]
Reactor fuel requirements
The world’s power reactors, with combined capacity of about 400 GWe, require some 67,500 tonnes of uranium from mines or elsewhere each year. While this capacity is being run more productively, with higher capacity factors and reactor power levels, the uranium fuel requirement is increasing, but not necessarily at the same rate. The factors increasing fuel demand are offset by a trend for higher burn-up of fuel and other efficiencies, so demand is steady. (Over the years 1980 to 2008 the electricity generated by nuclear power increased 3.6-fold while uranium used increased by a factor of only 2.5.)
The world's present measured resources of uranium (6.1 Mt) in the cost category less than three times present spot prices and used only in conventional reactors, are enough to last for about 90 years. This represents a higher level of assured resources than is normal for most minerals. Further exploration and higher prices will certainly, on the basis of present geological knowledge, yield further resources as present ones are used up.
Reducing the tails assay in enrichment reduces the amount of natural uranium required for a given amount of fuel. Reprocessing of used fuel from conventional light water reactors also utilizes present resources more efficiently, by a factor of about 1.3 overall. The 2016 and 2018 editions of the Red Book recognized these trends, along with more efficient plant operation, and as a result of which, the report’s generic reactor fuel consumption was reduced from 175 tU per GWe per year at 0.30% tails assay (2012 report) to 160 tU per GWe per year at 0.25% tails assay (2016, 2018 and 2020 reports). The corresponding U3O8 figures are 206 tonnes and 189 tonnes. Note that these figures are generalizations across the industry and across many different reactor types.
Today's reactor fuel requirements are met from primary supply and secondary sources: commercial stockpiles, nuclear weapons stockpiles, recycled plutonium and uranium from reprocessing used fuel, and some from re-enrichment of depleted uranium tails (left over from original enrichment). These various secondary sources make uranium unique among energy minerals.
Read on ....
[Also see (here) for the recent news on nuclear power plans.]
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