Merino reported in 2023 that one of the main arguments in favor of nuclear energy, which is experiencing a second youth worldwide, is the independence it offers to the countries that have integrated it into their energy mix. “Nuclear power makes us autonomous,” defends Emmanuel Macron, who governs the country in the world that is always the most committed to it.
What the French leader doesn’t talk about, however, is the complicated supply chain of the nuclear fuel uranium, which is [was] increasingly concentrated and controlled by Russia, [but because Putin has made a major mistake in invading Ukraine, Russia is being excluded from much of the world markets because of his actions].
Niger is the best example. According to 2022 data from the World Nuclear Association, the former French colony stands out as the seventh largest producer of uranium in the world, but its supply – most destined for Europe – covers barely 25% of the European Union’s and 10th % from France. Although uranium from Niger helps power Europe, all eyes are on the West African country after the military overthrew its elected president (more).
Following the coup in late July, the West now faces a risk that Niger will fall into the Kremlin’s sphere of influence and its production will help increase its dependence on Russia, which provided about a third of the uranium consumed by the US last year and a fifth of that of the EU. In this sense, it is instructive that the Western embargoes on Russian raw materials after the invasion of Ukraine bypassed this radioactive element. After all, Moscow enriches 46% of uranium in a market that is already very tight and could only meet 75% of global demand in 2022. This Russian dominance is largely due to the enormous potential of Kazakhstan, a former Soviet state that produces 43% of the world’s uranium, [although Russia's influence in Kazakhstan and Niger is declining].
Although Astana has tried to distance itself from its neighbor, its industry remains closely linked to Russia’s business network, as evidenced by the fact that Rosatom – Russia’s state-owned nuclear power company – took over 49% of Kazakhstan’s Karatau mine in May 2023. which is on the way to becoming the most productive on the planet.
THE BIG URANIUM PRODUCERS
To the growing Russian control must also be added the arrival of China on the scene: Beijing is trying to decarbonize its energy mix and has started to increase its nuclear energy production capacity. In fact, the Asian giant is already the world’s third largest nuclear energy producer – behind the United States and France – and isn’t stopping to expand its nuclear infrastructure: it plans to triple the number of its nuclear power plants in the coming years.
But although China has several uranium deposits on its territory and is the world’s eighth largest producer, China relies on imports to fuel its nuclear industry. Its supply strategy is based on resource accumulation – it has enough uranium to last a decade; Direct investments in foreign mines, such as in Namibia; and long-term bilateral agreements, like the one guaranteeing half of Kazakh production for the next twenty years.
In fact, uranium is very abundant in nature – 2.8 parts per million is found in the earth’s crust, almost as much as tin or cobalt. The problem is that its concentration is usually very low and its extraction is rarely profitable. Add to this a reluctance to dispose of radioactive waste and a cycle of low prices that has prevented investment in exploration and the development of new technologies [The author must have been sleeping the past 5 years]
However, renewed interest in nuclear energy and geopolitical rivalry should boost the uranium industry, which has doubled in price over the past three years. Saudi Arabia, for example, recently found “significant amounts” of this metal on its territory [but whether that "find" will make a mine is unknown at present]. Potential customers will certainly not be missing.
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