Dunbar, and 11 co-authors, reported in late 2022 that the Earth is warming in response to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. Global climate models project an average temperature increase across New Mexico of 5° to 7° F over the next 50 years. Other primary impacts are decreased water supply (partly driven by thinner snowpacks and earlier spring melting), lower soil moisture levels, increased frequency and intensity of wildfires, and increased competition and demand for scarce water resources.
Snowpack and associated runoff are projected to decline substantially over the next 50 years, generating diminished headwater streamflow. Flow in the state's major rivers is projected to decline by 16% to 28%, and the frequency of extreme precipitation events, coupled with fire-driven disruption of vegetation in watersheds, is projected to at least double river sediment. The impacts of climate change on New Mexico's water resources are overwhelmingly negative.
The bulletin, which is the scientific foundation upon which New Mexico's 50-Year Water Plan is based, represents a compilation, assessment and integration of existing peer-reviewed published research, technical reports and datasets relevant to the broad topic of the likely changes to New Mexico climate over the next 50 years, and resultant impact on water resources. This project, also known as the "Leap Ahead" analysis, also identifies significant data and modeling gaps and uncertainties, and suggests research directions to strengthen our understanding of climate and water resource changes.
Watch:"New Mexico's 50 Year Water Plan: A Solid Foundation" — a short video featuring the authors discussing the book.
An extensive list of references for this Bulletin is also available (here).
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