Jones reported in late 2021 that faults can appear at the surface as simple, straight features, but deep below ground they can be complex, and their hidden geometry can play in a role in their hazard. For decades, seismologists have tried to figure out what makes some earthquakes grow to destructive proportion, whereas others stop short, sparing nearby cities from the strongest shaking. Understanding how fault ruptures spread is key and can help researchers make accurate hazard assessments in complex fault zones. Now, a new study shows that slight variations in the orientation along the length of faults, such as the San Andreas, can affect how big or how damaging an earthquake can be.
Slip follows the easy path
Research on recent and historic earthquakes shows that slip along a fault often follows the path of least resistance. A rupture will continue along a straight section of fault, but often stops when the slip reaches an obstacle — sometimes one that has been mapped out at the surface, such as a bend or step in the fault. Julian Lozos, a seismologist at the California State University, Northridge, who authored the new study, wanted to know whether hidden features at the base of a fault could also deflect seismic waves and stop an earthquake in its tracks. His model is the first to consider the impact of a fault’s below ground geometry on rupture spreading.
Thinking in three dimensions
Lozos was inspired by his local San Andreas Fault, which is a classic example of a “strike-slip” fault — a vertical (or near-vertical) boundary where two sections of earth slide horizontally past each other. At least, that’s the idealized definition. Scientists know from patterns of past earthquakes and below-ground geophysical imaging that strike-slip faults, though often vertical, sometimes deflect, or “dip,” into the earth at an angle. That dip angle can also vary along a fault’s length. Back in 2012, a study showed that part of the San Andreas Fault, located east of Los Angeles, has a “propeller” shape, with two adjacent sections dipping in opposing directions. “Since that 2012 propeller model, I’ve wanted to take an earthquake model and introduce variable dip; I’d never seen it done before,” said Lozos.
The impact of variable dip
Lozos’ model shows that a rupture can stop when it reaches a change in dip along the length of a fault. Large dips that change over short distances are more likely to have this effect. Lozos says that where the dip changes, there is a significant change in the amount of friction clamping the fault together. At depth, the change in friction has the same decelerating effect on earthquake rupture propagation as similar fault kinks or steps at the surface. Scientists had not been able to test the impacts of this hidden geometry before now.
That deceleration can even stop an earthquake rupture in its tracks. If a propagating rupture reaches a slight change in dip along the fault and stops, then the magnitude of the earthquake will be smaller than if it had continued unabated. As a result, shaking is restricted to a smaller area than if the rupture had continued. Dip changes could therefore result in a lower hazard.
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