Peeters reported that tremendous efforts from across society are required to fight global warming. And yet, uncertainty remains about the necessary policies and the roadmap that can lead us to net zero. It is this uncertainty that triggered our present Elia Group study, which focuses on the electricity system and includes insights into three of its most important dimensions: energy balance, flexibility and adequacy. Based on these key insights, we identified different focus points that should be considered on the road to 2050.
What could a decarbonized European energy system look like in 2050? Does Europe have sufficient renewable energy sources (RES) to fully decarbonise? How will we balance demand and supply in a high RES system and keep the lights on during longer periods with little or no wind and sun? This new Elia Group study addresses these and many other questions. We considered them from a European perspective, whilst zooming in on our home countries, Germany and Belgium.
To understand how the electricity system might work in 2050, we explored three dimensions of the European electricity system: energy balance; flexibility; and adequacy. Following this, we investigated two distinct transformation pathways to net zero:
1. ELEC-pathway: Europe’s final electricity demand in 2050 is assumed to increase by 70% compared with today’s demand as a result of strong electrification.
2. MOL-pathway: Europe’s final electricity demand in 2050 is assumed to increase by 30%, accompanied with a higher share of ‘green molecules’ in the final energy consumption.
Energy Balance Insights
Europe is short on the renewables it needs to achieve net zero by 2050. Our analysis reveals that there will be insufficient domestic RES to cover its total energy demand. While Europe will have sufficient RES to cover its direct electrification needs, imports of green molecules from other continents will be required.
Europe’s direct electricity demand in 2050 can be met, but only if we accelerate annual renewable expansion by a factor of three, increase efficiency and build more interconnectors.
Flexibility Insights
RES are inherently intermittent, causing daily, weekly and seasonal fluctuations in energy supply. A well-designed RES system will be able to manage these fluctuations in an efficient way.
- Our second finding is quite surprising: you don’t need large-scale amounts of green molecules to cope with seasonality. To maintain the balance and cope with fluctuations from renewables, you need a well-designed system.
- Long-term fluctuations can be minimized with a good balance between wind (generating more energy in winter) and solar energy (generating more energy in summer), avoiding a seasonal mismatch between power supply and demand.
- Mid-term fluctuation can manage by increasing interconnectors, which reduce the impact of local RES supply dips.
- Daily fluctuations can be covered by unlocking end user flexibility available in electric vehicles (EVs), heat pumps and home batteries.
Adequacy Insights
Even with a high level of interconnection and end user flexibility in the power system, a significant volume of ‘dispatchable’ capacity will be needed in 2050 to cover periods lasting up to several weeks with low RES supply and high demand. These periods will mainly occur in winter.
There will still be times of stress - like in winter - when demand is high but renewable production is low, meaning that dispatchable capacities will be needed. There is a significant need for dispatchable capacities, but they will only be activated for a limited period of time in 2050, since periods with sustained low RES infeed will be both rare and short.
The insights outlined above led us to identify a number of focus points that are outlined below. These focus points complement other well-known measures, such as the need for enabling significant efficiency gains to reduce primary energy needs.
Four focus points on the way to Net Zero:
1. Ensure an efficient use of RES Potential:
To make optimal use of the continent’s scarce RES capacity, Europe needs to set up frameworks for partnerships between countries with different levels of RES potential.
2. Triple the speed of RES expansion:
Policymakers at all institutional levels need to focus on measures that create the right investment framework and reduce the throughput time of RES expansion projects and the realization of the necessary grid infrastructure.
3. Electrify, electrify, … Now!
The electrification of mobility, heating and end-use appliances should be prioritized, as this is key for reaching climate neutrality. Electrification unlocks flexibility, which further facilitates the integration of RES, and reduces the final energy demand.
4. Avoid lock-in effects for efficient decarbonization:
The use of green molecules to replace grey hydrogen and decarbonize sectors where electrification is not an option, is a priority.
According to the CEO of 50Hertz, Stefan Kapferer, the Elia Group study shows what is needed in Europe to become climate neutral: "We know that the pace of renewable expansion in Europe must triple. For Germany, accelerating this expansion is even more important. We want to become climate-neutral as early as 2045. That means we have to focus fully on expanding renewables and the grid infrastructure. In all of this, we must also make progress on the issues of controllable capacity and flexibility in order to continue to ensure system stability at a high level."
“At Elia Group, we sincerely hope that the key insights and proposed focus points in our study will be relevant for Europe as a whole, for stakeholders from across the energy sector and for policymakers. We see a crucial role for the latter to play, since they can influence investment conditions, infrastructure planning and market arrangements. With the publication of this new Elia Group study, we want to contribute to defining the most efficient way to reach net zero by 2050. We hope you enjoy the read!”
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