WNA reported in December, 2021 that in summary:
- Nuclear power capacity worldwide is increasing steadily, with about 50 reactors under construction.
- Most reactors on order or planned are in the Asian region, though there are major plans for new units in Russia.
- Significant further capacity is being created by plant upgrading.
- Plant lifetime extension programs are maintaining capacity, particularly in the U. S..
- [It should be added that SMRs are being designed and tested. Should be available beginning this decade (more)]
Today there are about 445 nuclear power reactors operating in 32 countries plus Taiwan, with a combined capacity of about 400 GWe. In 2020 these provided 2,553 TWh, about 10% of the world's electricity. About 50 power reactors are currently being constructed in 19 countries (see Table below), notably China, India, Russia and the United Arab Emirates.
Each year, the OECD's International Energy Agency (IEA) sets out the present situation as well as reference and other – particularly carbon reduction – scenarios in its World Energy Outlook (WEO) report. In the 2021 edition (WEO 2021), the IEA's 'Stated Policies Scenario' sees installed nuclear capacity growth of over 26% from 2020 to 2050 (reaching about 525 GWe). The scenario envisages a total generating capacity of 17,844 GWe by 2050, with the increase concentrated heavily in Asia, and in particular India and China. In this scenario, nuclear's contribution to global power generation is about 8% in 2050.
The IEA's Stated Policies Scenario (formerly named 'New Policies Scenario') is based on a review of policy announcements and plans, reflecting the way governments see their energy sectors evolving over the coming decades. The IEA estimates in WEO 2021 that the cumulative impact of the stated policies would result in global carbon dioxide emissions declining by less than 1% to 2050.
The IEA has produced energy transition scenarios since 2009, beginning with the '450 Scenario', which was consistent with the narrow aim of keeping carbon dioxide concentrations below 450 ppm (parts per million) – the level associated with a 50% likelihood of keeping the average global temperature rise below 2 °C (compared with pre-industrial levels). In 2017, the IEA introduced the 'Sustainable Development Scenario' (SDS), which "portrays an energy future which emphasizes co-benefits of the measures needed to simultaneously deliver energy access, clean air and climate goals." The SDS in WEO 2021 sees nuclear capacity increase to 669 GWe by 2050.
Nuclear plant construction
About 100 power reactors with a total gross capacity of about 100,000 MWe are on order or planned, and over 300 more are proposed. Most reactors currently planned are in Asia, with fast-growing economies and rapidly-rising electricity demand.
Many countries with existing nuclear power programs either have plans to, or are building, new power reactors. Every country worldwide that has operating nuclear power plants, or plants under construction, has a dedicated country profile in the Information Library.
About 30 countries are considering, planning or starting nuclear power programs (see information page on Emerging Nuclear Energy Countries).
Power reactors under construction (here)
Increased capacity
Increased nuclear capacity in some countries is resulting from the uprating of existing plants. This is a highly cost-effective way of bringing on new capacity. Numerous power reactors in the USA, Switzerland, Spain, Finland, and Sweden, for example, have had their generating capacity increased.
- In the U.S., the Nuclear Regulatory Commission has approved about 165 uprates totaling over 7500 MWe since 1977, a few of them 'extended uprates' of up to 20%.
- In Switzerland, all operating reactors have had uprates, increasing capacity by 13.4%.
- Spain has had a program to add 810 MWe (11%) to its nuclear capacity through upgrading its nine reactors by up to 13%. Most of the increase is already in place. For instance, the Almarez nuclear plant was boosted by 7.4% at a cost of $50 million.
- Finland boosted the capacity of the original Olkiluoto plant by 29% to 1700 MWe. This plant started with two 660 MWe Swedish BWRs commissioned in 1978 and 1980. The Loviisa plant, with two VVER-440 reactors, has been uprated by 90 MWe (18%).
- Sweden's utilities have uprated three plants. The Ringhals plant was uprated by about 305 MWe over 2006-14. Oskarshamn 3 was uprated by 21% to 1450 MWe at a cost of €313 million. Forsmark 2 had a 120 MWe uprate (12%) to 2013.
Plant lifetime extensions and retirements
Most nuclear power plants originally had a nominal design operating lifetime of 25 to 40 years, but engineering assessments have established that many can operate longer. By the end of 2016, the NRC had granted license renewals to over 85 reactors, extending their operating lifetimes from 40 to 60 years. Such license extensions at about the 30-year mark justify significant capital expenditure needed for the replacement of worn equipment and outdated control systems.
In France, there are rolling ten-year reviews of reactors. In 2009 the Nuclear Safety Authority (ASN) approved EDF's safety case for 40-year operation of its 900 MWe units, based on generic assessment of the 34 reactors. There are plans to take reactor lifetimes out to 60 years, involving substantial expenditure.
The Russian government is extending the operating lifetimes of most of the country's reactors from their original 30 years, for 15 years, or for 30 years in the case of the newer VVER-1000 units, with significant upgrades.
The technical and economic feasibility of replacing major reactor components, such as steam generators in PWRs, and pressure tubes in CANDU heavy water reactors, has been demonstrated. The possibility of component replacement and license renewals extending the lifetimes of existing plants is very attractive to utilities, especially in view of the public acceptance difficulties involved in constructing replacement nuclear capacity. On the other hand, economic, regulatory and political considerations have led to the premature closure of some power reactors, particularly in the U.S., where reactor numbers have fallen from a high of 110 to 94, as well as in parts of Europe and likely in Japan.
It should not be assumed that a reactor will close when its existing license is due to expire, since operating license extension is now common. However, new units coming online have more or less been balanced by the retirement of old units in recent years. Over 1999-2020, 103 reactors were retired as 104 started operations. There are no firm projections for retirements over the next two decades, but the World Nuclear Association's 2021 edition of The Nuclear Fuel Report has 123 reactors closing by 2040 in its reference scenario, using conservative assumptions about license renewal, and 308 coming online.
Notes & References (here)
Related Information (here)
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