Steffen and 3 co-authors reported in early 2020 that energy scenarios in line with the Paris Agreement suggest massive investments in wind turbines and solar photovoltaics (PVs). Thus, understanding their cost reduction dynamics is key to detail feasible transition pathways and to identify necessary support measures. Past research mainly studied the development of equipment and installation cost. However, other cost components gain in importance.
The authors reviewed the operations and maintenance (O&M) costs and deliver a quantitative and qualitative description of their dynamics. Their results are based on data for wind turbines and solar PV systems in Germany but have global implications. The depiction of O&M cost dynamics by experience curves allows to project future cost reductions, informing energy system planning and the design of support policies. For researchers, the method allows to endogenize O&M cost dynamics in energy system and integrated assessment models, improving the precision of scenarios and the informational value of modeling results.
Given the decline in investment costs for renewable energy technologies, other cost components have become increasingly important. In 2017, operations and maintenance (O&M) accounted for 20%–25% of lifecycle costs for wind and solar plants in Europe, but the understanding of O&M dynamics is limited. Presenting new data from Germany, here, the authors considered cumulative operating experience to estimate O&M experience curves for onshore wind and solar photovoltaic (PV). Results indicate O&M cost reductions with each doubling of cumulative experience of 9.2%–12.8% for onshore wind and of 15.7%–18.2% for solar.
Drawing on expert interviews and archival information, the authors described mechanisms regarding how O&M experience led to lower costs, including economies of scale, upsizing, learning by doing, and learning by using and learning by interacting, comparing both technologies. Moreover, regulatory changes fostered competitive pressure toward cost reductions. The authors' results suggest that dynamic cost reduction potentials for O&M need to be considered in energy system planning, modeling, and optimization.
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