The Global Energy Review - 2021

Nuclear Power Industry

Key Findings:

• Global energy demand is set to increase by 4.6% in 2021, more than offsetting the 4% contraction in 2020 and pushing demand 0.5% above 2019 levels. Almost 70% of the projected increase in global energy demand is in emerging markets and developing economies, where demand is set to rise to 3.4% above 2019 levels. Energy use in advanced economies is on course to be 3% below pre-Covid levels.
  
  
• Demand for all fossil fuels is set to grow significantly in 2021. Coal demand alone is projected to increase by 60% more than all renewables combined, underpinning a rise in emissions of almost 5%, or 1 500 Mt. This expected increase would reverse 80% of the drop in 2020, with emissions ending up just 1.2% (or 400 Mt) below 2019 emissions levels.
  
  
• Despite an expected annual increase of 6.2% in 2021, global oil demand is set to remain around 3% below 2019 levels. Oil use for road transport is not projected to reach pre-Covid levels until the end of 2021. Oil use for aviation is projected to remain 20% below 2019 levels even in December 2021, with annual demand more than 30% lower than in 2019. A full return to pre-crisis oil demand levels would have pushed up CO2 emissions a further 1.5%, putting them well above 2019 levels.
  
  
• Coal demand is on course to rise 4.5% in 2021, with more than 80% of the growth concentrated in Asia. China alone is projected to account for over 50% of global growth. Coal demand in the United States and the European Union is also rebounding, but is still set to remain well below pre-crisis levels. The power sector accounted for only 50% of the drop in coal-related emissions in 2020. But the rapid increase in coal-fired generation in Asia means the power sector is expected to account for 80% of the rebound in 2021. However, some countries vow to decrease coal use (more).
  
  
• Natural gas demand is set to grow by 3.2% in 2021, propelled by increasing demand in Asia, the Middle East and the Russian Federation (“Russia”). This is expected to put global demand more than 1% above 2019 levels. In the United States – the world’s largest natural gas market – the annual increase in demand is set to amount to less than 20% of the 20 bcm decline in 2020, squeezed by the continued growth of renewables and rising natural gas prices. Nearly three-quarters of the global demand growth in 2021 is from the industry and buildings sectors, while electricity generation from natural gas remains below 2019 levels.

Looking Back - Nuclear Power in 2020

Electricity generation from nuclear reactors decreased by around 4% – the largest decline since the aftermath of the Fukushima accident in 2011. Major reductions took place in the European Union (-11%), Japan (-33%) and the United States (-2%). The decline in Europe resulted from depressed electricity demand, temporary shutdowns for scheduled and unscheduled maintenance, and permanent shutdowns. In Japan, some reactors were temporarily shut for work required in order to meet new anti-terrorism safety standards. Nuclear power increased in China (5%) and Russia (3%), with new units being commissioned during 2019 and 2020. In Belarus and the United Arab Emirates, the first nuclear units entered commercial operation, with more units currently under construction.

Looking Forward - Nuclear Power in 2021

Nuclear power rebounds and increases 2% in 2021, reversing only half of the decline in output that took place in 2020. Seven new reactors came online in the second half of 2020 and Q1 2021, more than offsetting the three reactors retired over the same period. Up to ten more new reactors could be connected to the grid worldwide by the end of 2021, including four in China. Despite the increase in operational capacity over the course of the year, global nuclear power in 2021 remains slightly below the 2019 level. Across advanced economies, nuclear power increases slightly in 2021, with output remaining 6% below 2019 levels. Nonetheless, nuclear remains the largest single source of low-carbon generation in these economies.

Nuclear power in the United States is expected to decline further in 2021, with five reactors scheduled to be retired during the year, leaving output more than 4% below 2019 levels, [although President Biden has indicated that his administration will attempt to maintain the fleet, and perhaps unshutter some existing, but closed plants]. The anticipated declines in the United States in 2021 offset increases in other advanced economies. In Japan, the progressive restart of reactors is likely to increase nuclear output by 6% in 2021, reversing only a small fraction of the 30 TWh decline in output in 2020. [SMR development is on the fast track in the U.S., Canada, and the UK]

Across the European Union, output is set to increase by more than 2% in 2021, due primarily to higher electricity demand in France and a new reactor in Slovakia, but this increase is insufficient to make up for the drop in 2020. In emerging market and developing economies, nuclear power is set to increase by over 5% in 2021, with new reactors coming online in several countries, led by China and complemented by new reactors in India, United Arab Emirates, Pakistan and Russia. The growth in 2021 pushes output from nuclear to 8% above 2019 levels, with emerging market and developing economies increasing their share of global nuclear output to almost one-third, up from 29% in 2019.

Original working URL: https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-2021/nuclear#abstract