Lu, and 4 co-authors, re[ported in early 2021 that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), as one of the main internal decadal climate variabilities, has been shown to have substantial impacts on both the climate system and other parts of Earth system. Due to its complexity, however, it is still challenging to predict its phase changes. Here, a new technique from climate network analysis was employed to capture the potential precursors of the phase transition.
By calculating the linkages between the warm and cold regions of the PDO spatial pattern, a sudden strengthening of negative connections between the two regions was detected a few years before the phase transition. This early warning signal arises from the cooperative behavior of the considered regions, that is, many more grid points from the two regions are becoming negatively linked at the time of alarming. This time corresponds well to the moment when the upper ocean heat content in the offâ€equatorial northwestern tropical Pacific reaches a threshold, in which case a PDO phase transition may be expected with the arising of the next El Ni o/La Ni a event.
Since the early warning signal is objectively detected from the climate network analysis, it may be used in operations for improved predictions of the PDO.
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