UxC, LLC is one of the nuclear industry’s leading market research and analysis companies. UxC offers a wide range of services spanning the entire nuclear fuel cycle with a special focus on market-related issues. UxC was founded in March 1994 as an affiliate of The Uranium Exchange Company (Ux) in order to extend and provide greater focus to Ux’s analytical and information services capabilities. Over time, UxC has taken over these functions and now publishes the Ux Weekly® and Market Outlook reports on uranium, enrichment, conversion, and fabrication, and nuclear power, as well as publishing the industry standard Ux Prices, referenced in many fuel contracts. In 2007, UxC extended its coverage of the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle by acquiring the SpentFUEL and StoreFUEL publications.
Publications are the primary focus of UxC’s activities, but UxC’s team of experts also provide a vast array of custom services for clients in all areas of the nuclear energy markets. In addition, UxC also prepares special reports on various topics, as well as provides data services, such as nuclear fuel price indicator reporting, including support for the CME/NYMEX UX uranium futures contract. Given our industry experience, strong analytical skills, comprehensive data, and our team of external consultants, UxC is poised to provide the most complete research, analysis, and in-formation services in the nuclear fuel industry and related nuclear power sectors.
Despite rising spot prices over the last half of 2018 due in large part to suppliers finally cutting significant production volumes, spot prices slipped in the first half of 2019 as utility and investor demand turned out to be subpar ahead of the Section 232 decision. While President Trump's decision has put a conclusion to the statutory 232 investigation, it has not fully ended the discussion about how the initiation of a 90-day "Nuclear Fuel Working Group" could still result in support for the U.S. uranium industry.
In the near-term, U.S. utilities can now proceed with new long-term uranium procurement and other components without the threat of a specific origin requirement. Non-U.S. utilities, which also held off the market in anticipation that they could capitalize on lower global uranium prices had a U.S.-origin buying quota been placed on U.S. utilities, can now move forward with more normalized procurement plans.
Given the cuts to primary production over the past couple of years, today's uranium market is positioning itself to slowly return to a normal queuing event where prices will begin to more closely correlate to the marginal cost of uranium production. Additionally, the Kazakh production target for 2021 has recently been curtailed and this could extend out beyond 2021 if market conditions do not improve.
As more primary production is cut or pushed into the future, more utilities and suppliers will purchase available secondary supplies, thus helping to eliminate excess material and place upward pressure on the spot price. This spot price increase could be further enhanced by traders and financial players attempting to get ahead of the next round of contracting activity. Long-term legacy contracts continue to expire, so utilities may soon be focusing on securing new replacement term contracts.
Although reactor requirements are rather flat through 2025, there is significant growth over the 2026 through 2035 period that will necessitate new production. Furthermore, there are a handful of uranium projects whose resources will be exhausted by 2025. In addition to transitioning to a more production-driven market, a large percentage of production exists in regions of the world with higher geopolitical risk, making the market vulnerable to future disruptions and price volatility.
The UxC Uranium Market Outlook (UMO) report is designed to examine developments and discern trends in the market, including the likely future course of prices under different scenarios. The entire report is updated quarterly so that subscribers have the most current information and analyses on which to base their decisions. Updates of leading market indicators are also provided on a monthly basis so you are never too out of touch with the market.
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