The IAEA reported in 2006 that the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in 1986 was the most severe in the history of the nuclear power industry, causing a huge release of radionuclides over large areas of Belarus, Ukraine and the Russian Federation. Now, 20 years later, UN Agencies and representatives of the three countries have reviewed the health, environmental and socio-economic consequences. The highest radiation doses were received by emergency workers and on-site personnel, some of the workers.
In time more than 600 000 people were registered as emergency and recovery workers (‘liquidators’). Although some received high doses of radiation during their work, many of them and the majority of the residents of areas designated as ‘contaminated’ in Belarus, Russia and Ukraine (over 5 million people) received relatively low whole-body doses of radiation, not much higher than doses due to natural background radiation. The mitigation measures taken by the authorities, including evacuation of people from the most contaminated areas, substantially reduced radiation exposures and the radiation-related health impacts of the accident. Nevertheless, socio-economic impacts. Childhood thyroid cancer caused by radioactive iodine fallout is one of the main health accident were particularly high in those who were children at the time and drank milk with high levels of radioactive iodine.
By 2002, more than 4000 thyroid cancer cases had been diagnosed in this group, and it is most likely that a large fraction of these thyroid cancers is attributable to radioiodine intake. Apart from the dramatic increase in thyroid cancer incidence among those exposed at a young age, there is no clearly demonstrated increase in the incidence of solid cancers or leukemia due to radiation in the most affected populations. There was, however, an increase in psychological problems among the affected population, compounded economic depression that followed the break-up of the Soviet Union. It is impossible to assess reliably, with any precision, numbers of fatal cancers caused by radiation exposure due to the Chernobyl accident — or indeed the impact of the stress and anxiety induced by the accident and the response to it. Small differences in the assumptions concerning radiation risks can lead to large differences in the predicted health consequences, which are therefore highly uncertain.
An international expert group has made projections to provide a rough estimate of the possible health impacts of the accident and to help plan the future allocation of public health resources. The projections indicate that, among the most exposed populations (liquidators, evacuees and residents of the so-called ‘strict control zones’), total cancer mortality might increase by up to a few per cent owing to Chernobyl related radiation exposure. Such an increase could mean eventually up to several thousand fatal cancers in addition to perhaps one hundred thousand cancer deaths expected in these populations from all other causes. An term epidemiological studies.
Since 1986, radiation levels in the affected environments have declined several hundred fold because of natural processes and countermeasures. Therefore, the majority of the ‘contaminated’ territories are now safe for settlement and economic activity. However, in the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone and in certain limited areas some restrictions on land-use will need to be retained for decades to come. The Governments took many successful countermeasures to address the accident’s consequences. However, recent research shows that the direction of current efforts should be changed. Social and economic restoration of the affected Belarusian, Russian and Ukrainian regions, as well as the elimination of the psychological burden on the general public and emergency workers, must be a priority.
Additional priorities for Ukraine are to decommission the destroyed Chernobyl Unit 4 and gradually remediate the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone, including safely managing radioactive waste. Preservation of the tacit knowledge developed in the mitigation of the consequences is essential, and targeted research on some aspects of the environmental, health and social consequences of the accident should be continued in the longer term.
This report, covering environmental radiation, human health and socio-economic aspects, is the most comprehensive evaluation of the accident’s consequences to date. About 100 recognized experts from many countries, including Belarus, Russia and Ukraine, have contributed. It represents a consensus view of the eight organizations of the UN family according to their competences and of the three affected countries.
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