WNA reported in Mid-2020 that Vietnam has considered establishing nuclear power generation since 1995, and firm proposals surfaced in 2006. Russia had agreed to finance and build 2,400 MWe of nuclear capacity from 2020. Japan had agreed similarly for another 2,200 MWe.
In November 2016, plans were deferred in favor of gas and coal, but were revived in 2020. Electricity use is expected to triple from 2015 to 2030. Vietnam is the most significant of the three lower Mekong countries, with a population of 95 million. It produced 199 TWh gross of electricity in 2017, of which 89 TWh (45%) was from hydro, 68 TWh (34%) from coal, 41 TWh (21%) from gas. Imports and exports are each approximately 1 TWh. Consumption in 2017 was about 180 TWh, or around 1500 kWh per capita. At the end of 2016 Vietnam had 42.1 GWe of generating capacity (38% hydro, 34% coal, 18% gas and 3% oil).
Demand is growing rapidly, resulting in rationing. Electricity demand growth – mostly in the south – has been up to 15% in recent years. US Energy Information Administration figures project Vietnam’s generating capacity expanding to about 135 GWe in 2030. A 500 kV grid runs the length of the country and some 95% of the rural population has access to electricity.
Projections of power demand (base scenario) in 2011 were:
30.8 GWe, 194 TWh in 2015 (33% hydro, 35.5% coal).
52.0 GWe, 320 TWh in 2020 (26% hydro, 46% coal, 17% gas, 1.5% nuclear).
77.0 GWe, 490 TWh in 2025 (21% hydro, 46% coal, 16% gas, 6% nuclear).
110.2 GWe, 695 TWh in 2030 (16% hydro, 56% coal, 11% gas, 8% nuclear – with nuclear share then increasing to 20-25% by 2050).
In 2016, the 2030 projection was for 570 TWh in 2030, with 32.5 TWh (5.7%) of this from nuclear. Then in November 2016 the projection for 2030 was reduced further so that it could be met with 6 GWe of coal and gas-fired generation plus some renewables, producing about 50 TWh/yr without nuclear power. EVN said in 2016 that demand growth was forecast at 11% per year to 2020 and then 7-8% to 2030. Apart from this, air pollution from coal is significant in both major cities.
Nuclear Power Proposals
In the early 1980s two preliminary nuclear power studies were undertaken, followed by another which reported in 1995 that: "Around the year 2015, when electricity demand reaches more than 100 billion kWh, nuclear power should be introduced for satisfying the continuous growth in the country's electricity demand in that time and beyond". Current projections almost double this.
In February 2006, the government announced that a 2000 MWe nuclear power plant should be on line by 2020. This general target was confirmed in a nuclear power development plan approved by the government in August 2007, with the target being raised to a total of 8000 MWe nuclear by 2025. A general law on nuclear energy was passed in mid 2008, and a comprehensive legal and regulatory framework is being developed.
Since October 2008,, two reactors total 2000 MWe have been planned at Phuoc Dinh in the southern Ninh Thuan province. A further 2000 MWe was planned at Vinh Hai nearby, followed by a further 6000 MWe by 2030. Both locations are based particularly on geological suitability on the coast. A high demand scenario would give 8000 MWe in 2025 and 15,000 MWe (10% of total) in 2030 at up to eight sites in five provinces. Four more units would be added to the first two sites, then six more at three or four central sites in provinces of Quang Ngai (Duc Thang or Duc Chanh), Binh Dinh (Hoai My) and Phu Yen (Xuan Phuong). These, plus Ky Xuan in the northern Ha Tinh province, remained proposals in mid-2011 and early in 2014.
Atomstroyexport, Westinghouse, EdF, Kepco, and China Guangdong Nuclear Power Group (CGNPC) all expressed strong interest in supplying the first two twin-unit plants. Unconfirmed reports early in 2010 said that the Japanese government, with Tepco and others, offered an $11 billion contract, also that a consortium of Mitsubishi, Toshiba and Hitachi bid for the project. The plants will be state-owned under EVN, with no private equity.
In November 2016, the National Assembly passed a resolution to postpone indefinitely the plans for the two nuclear power stations, “due to economic conditions in our country today,” and lower demand projections. They will be replaced with 6 GWe of LNG and coal by 2030, based on short-term cost considerations relating to those fuels. Imports of power especially from Laos and also renewables will supplement this. However, in mid-2020 a draft power plan by the Ministry of Industry and Trade envisaged building nuclear power plants with a capacity of 1,000 MWe by 2040 increasing to 5,000 MWe by 2045.
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